Market Multiple Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table – June Update
  • ISM Manufacturing Index Takeaways

Futures are solidly higher today, rising with international markets thanks to easing geopolitical tensions offsetting COVID-19 worries and historic civil unrest in the U.S.

Chinese firms reportedly purchased multiple shipments of U.S. soybeans on Monday, contradicting earlier headlines that the government had broadly halted ag orders. The positive trade activity is acting as a tentative tailwind this morning.

There were no economic reports overnight but oil prices are up nearly 3% as OPEC+ (including Russia) is expected to extend current policy and output cuts beyond June.

Today, Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 10.0M) is the only economic data due to be released while there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak. That will leave investors largely focused on the simmering trade tensions between the U.S. and China as well as the ongoing, in some cases violent, protests across much of the U.S.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Yahoo Finance on May 28, 2020

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“I think the market has priced in that April is probably the worst of the economic data,” explained Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye. “While it looks like the worst is behind us — which is great — we need to start to see…” Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Stock Investor on May 27, 2020

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To help me unpack the question of whether the ramp-up in the twin “Ds” is going to represent a serious threat to the economy and the markets, I turned to my friend and brilliant colleague, macro analyst extraordinaire Tom Essaye of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Dollar Bill

Tom Essaye Interviewed with Yahoo Finance on May 28, 2020

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“I think the trade [on the social media stocks] is to stand back a bit and see how this shakes out. It seems like some sort of regulation on the social media and…” said Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade.

Click here to watch the full interview.

China Press Conference Preview (A New Headwind?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • China Press Conference Preview (A New Market Headwind?)
  • EIA and Oil Market Update

Futures are modestly lower as markets digest the week’s gains ahead of the China press conference and Powell speech.

Economic data was mixed overnight as German Retail Sales beat estimates (-5.3% vs. (E) -11%), while Japanese IP and Retail Sales both missed expectations.

U.S./China tensions continue to tick higher as China said it would retaliate to any sanctions over the Hong Kong law.

Today the big event is the Trump/China press conference, and the key is this:  As long as there’s no reason for the markets to think the “trade truce” is in jeopardy, any market fallout from more sanctions on China should be relatively modest.

Away from China, we get two notable economic reports today, Core PCE Price Index (E: -0.3%) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 73.9) and a speech by Fed Chair Powell (11:00 a.m. ET).  But, that’s unlikely to move markets unless there’s a surprise revealed (and that’s not likely as Fed policy is pretty well known at this point).

Bullish Developments on Equity Index Charts

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bullish Developments on the Equity Index Charts
  • Is There A Finally a Rival to Treasuries?  If So, What Are the Short and Long Term Implications?

Futures are little changed following a generally quiet night of news.

China’s legislature approved new security legislation for Hong Kong, further escalating tensions with the U.S. But, for now, markets are ignoring it.

Economically, the only notable number was EU Economic Sentiment which missed expectations (67.5 vs. (E) 70.5).

Today focus will be on economic data as we get multiple important reports including, in order of importance: Jobless Claims (E: 2.050M), Durable Goods Orders (E: -18.5%), Revised Q2 GDP (E: -4.8%), and Pending Home Sales Index (E: -15.5%).   We also get one Fed speaker: Williams (11:00 a.m. ET).

Finally, the administration keeps teasing a “response” to China passing the Hong Kong security legislation, and while markets have been able to ignore the uptick in U.S./China tension, that won’t last forever if tensions continue to rise.

Global Economic Stimulus Playbook (Repeat of ’08-’14?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is This Just a Big Replay of ’08-’14?

S&P futures are up well over 1% this morning as newly proposed economic stimulus plans in Europe and Japan, which total nearly $2T, are offsetting U.S.-China tensions.

The European Commission announced plans for another 750B euro economic recovery package overnight while Japan is planning $1.1T  in new stimulus to help stabilize growth.

Hong Kong protests due to China’s proposed national security laws weighed on Asian shares overnight and stoked concerns of rising tensions between the U.S. and China.

Today, there are no notable economic reports due to be released in the U.S. and just one Fed speaker to watch midday: Bullard (12:30 p.m. ET).

There is a 5-Yr Treasury Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which could move rates, impact the curve and ultimately affect stocks but the market’s primary focus will remain on coronavirus treatment/vaccine development, economic reopening progress, and simmering U.S.-China trade tensions.

Are There New Tailwinds for Stocks?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are There New Tailwinds for Stocks?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet

U.S. equity futures are trading higher with global markets today amid investor optimism for reopenings and reports of further progress on COVID-19 treatments/vaccines.

Novavax was the latest company to begin human testing for its coronavirus vaccine over the weekend which is helping drive risk-on money flows this morning.

Today, there are several economic reports due to be released: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI (E: 0.3%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.6%), Consumer Confidence (E: 88.3), and New Home Sales (E: 495K).

Additionally, there is one Fed official scheduled to speak: Kashkari (1:00 p.m. ET) and the Treasury will hold a 2-Yr T-Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Beyond those potential catalysts, investor focus will remain on the economic reopening process around the globe and any additional information regarding potential COVID-19 vaccines or treatments.

Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in Seeking Alpha on May 19, 2020

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Futures prices traded in contango last month, when the May contract settled negative ahead of its expiration, but the move into backwardation “shows that there is both strong demand for physical crude…” says Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Oil rig

Tom Essaye Quoted in Financial Post on May 19, 2020

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“A vaccine would be a bullish game changer, and stocks reacted accordingly,” Tom Essaye, author of “The Sevens Report” newsletter, wrote in a note. “But one day doesn’t make a sustainable…” Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye