“Now, over the medium and long term, the Fed’s average inflation target means that when cyclicals start to outperform, and when yields begin to rise, both those rallies will last longer…” writes Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
“Historically, good economic data is negative for gold but in this case, real interest rates declined in the wake of the release, as rising…” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher following a generally quiet weekend on the economic and political fronts.
Economic data was mixed but generally “fine” as China’s manufacturing PMI slightly missed estimates (51 vs. (E) 51.2) while the service PMI beat (55.2 vs. (E) 54.2).
On stimulus, the Republicans have upped their offer to $1.3T, so the two sides are getting closer to the likely $1.5T compromise, but a deal is still not expected until mid to late September.
There are no notable economic reports today or impactful earnings, so the key event will be a speech by Fed Vice Chair Clarida (9:00 a.m. ET) to see if he echoes the dovish sentiment we got from Powell last week (and he should). If Clarida is dovish in tone that should help markets continue the rally as otherwise, it should be a quiet day.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are marginally weaker following a quiet night of news as markets digest Wednesday’s rally ahead of weekly jobless claims and Fed Chair Powell’s speech.
Economic data was sparse overnight as Eurozone Money Supply was the only notable economic report and it beat estimates, rising 9.5% vs. (E) 9.1%, but that’s not moving markets.
Today the two key events are weekly Jobless Claims (E: 987K), and Fed Chair Powell’s speech (9:10 a.m.). The market will be looking for claims below 1MM and for Powell to hint at a new average inflation target, and disappointment on either will likely cause some selling in stocks, especially given this week’s rally.
Other notable events today include Revised Q2 GDP (E: -32.9%), Pending Home Sales Index (E: 1.5%) and another Fed speaker, Barkin (12:30 p.m. ET), but they shouldn’t move markets.
“What does that mean for us? It usually means remain long stocks in more time-dated accounts, and make confident you…” Sevens Report Study founder Tom Essaye recently spelled out to Yahoo Finance. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are flat and overseas equities were little changed overnight as investors digest the recent run to fresh record highs in the S&P amid very quiet news flow.
Internationally, Germany extended a “crisis job support program” which has helped keep millions employed since Q1 lockdowns. The extension is bolstering sentiment globally and helping EU shares modestly outperform today.
There were no notable or market-moving economic reports overnight.
Looking into today’s session, there is one economic report to watch ahead of the bell: Durable Goods Orders (E: 4.3%) and one Fed official scheduled to speak shortly after the open: Barkin (10:00 a.m. ET).
The limited number of catalysts today will likely leave stocks to trade with a sense of “Powell paralysis” ahead of the Fed Chair’s speech during the Economic Policy Symposium tomorrow morning however markets will remain sensitive to any further vaccine headlines or stimulus bill developments.
“What does that mean for us? It means stay long stocks in longer-dated accounts, and make sure…” Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye recently explained to Yahoo Finance.
“While the early use authorization for plasma is clearly a positive, from a market standpoint a vaccine remains a true…” says Tom Essaye, editor of the Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.
”Futures are moderately higher on Covid-19 treatment optimism following the FDA’s authorization of plasma treatment…” wrote The Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye before the open. Click here to read the full article.
Tom Essaye interviewed with Ben Lichtenstein from TD Ameritrade Network to discuss consumer-oriented earnings, treasury, stocks, and more…Click here to watch the full interview.
