After nearly a year of anti-climactic FOMC meetings, tomorrow’s meeting has the potential to move markets because it…wrote Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
Bitcoin is always going to be volatile and the manic run-up we had was never sustainable. The question is…said Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
Even though inflation metrics are high, the pressure is starting to come off and that leaves investors to say…said Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are flat this morning as a sense of Fed paralysis grips global markets ahead of the FOMC announcement while economic data disappointed overnight.
Chinese Fixed Asset Investment, Industrial Production and Retail Sales data all missed estimates for the month of May which resulted in Asian markets underperforming overnight.
Looking into this morning’s trading session, there are two lesser followed economic reports due to be released: Housing Starts (E: 1.630M) and Import & Export Prices (E: 0.7%, 0.7%) but neither release should move markets with the Fed looming.
The Biden-Putin meeting in Geneva will also get media attention but it is very unlikely to actually impact markets. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s testimony before Congress regarding Biden’s budget (10:00 a.m. ET), however, could move markets as she will likely be discussing taxes and any hint of a material hike in capital gains rates or corporate tax rates could weigh on markets even ahead of the Fed.
Today’s main event for the markets will of course be the conclusion of the June Fed meeting with the FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2:00 p.m. ET and then Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. If anything causes tapering expectations to be pulled forward towards September or evidence emerges of plans to raise rates in 2022, that will be viewed as hawkish and cause significant volatility across assets classes. Otherwise, an “as expected” or dovish meeting outcome will likely result in equities continuing to trade at or near all-time highs.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are little changed this morning as investors weigh dovish central bank developments against in-line inflation data in Europe as focus turns to U.S. data and the Fed.
The RBA minutes revealed policy makers are open to extending QE beyond the current September deadline while CPI reports in Europe all met estimates.
This morning is lining up to be a busy one from a potential catalyst standpoint with a slew of economic data due to be released including: PPI (E: 0.6%), Retail Sales (E: -0.4%), Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: 22.0), Industrial Production (E: 0.6%), and Housing Market Index (E: 83).
The June FOMC Meeting also begins today which will likely initiate a sense of market paralysis ahead of tomorrow’s announcement and Powell’s press conference however a 20-Year Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET could move Treasuries and ultimately impact stocks in the early afternoon.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly higher following a quiet weekend as markets look ahead to Wednesday’s FOMC decision.
The G-7 meeting in England produced a lot of headlines including broad agreement on a minimum corporate tax. But there were little specifics of any new policies released and the meeting won’t impact markets.
Economic data was sparse as the only notable number was Eurozone Industrial Production which rose 0.8% vs. (E) 0.4%.
Today there are no economic reports and no Fed speak (the Fed meeting starts tomorrow so officials are in their “quiet period” ahead of the meeting) so for markets to extend last week’s rally we’ll need to get corporate commentary that confirms inflation pressures are “peaking.” Absent that, I’d expect stocks to largely tread water ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision.
Stocks traded mixed on Wednesday as investors considered more mixed data on the…said Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
In the past two months, everything the market priced in has essentially happened. COVID is effectively over here in the United States, we’re not getting…Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report Research, told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday. Click here to read the full article.
A sense of trader paralysis grips global markets ahead of key catalysts due in…writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly higher on some mild infrastructure optimism.
A group of 10 bipartisan Senators reached a compromise on an infrastructure bill worth about $1T total that includes $600 billion of new spending over 5-8 years and contains no corporate tax hikes. But, this compromise is still very unlikely to ever become law, mainly because the spending is paid for via an increase in the gas tax, which Democrats have previously been against.
Economic data underwhelmed as UK Industrial Production (1.3% vs. (E) 1.2%) and UK GDP both missed estimates.
Today focus will be on Consumer Sentiment (E: 84.0) and specifically inflation expectations, and if we see a big rise in the one and five year inflation expectations that could cause a rally in Treasury yields, which would pressure stocks. However, barring that event, the path of least resistance for markets right now is higher.