Economic Breaker Panel: March Update

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Economic Breaker Panel: March Update
  • Takeaways from a Blockbuster Philly Fed Release

U.S. equity futures are bouncing modestly higher this morning following yesterday’s steep declines as the bond market shows signs of stabilizing with the 10-year yield down 4-5 basis points in pre-market trade.

Economically, Japanese CPI and Australian Retail Sales data were both mostly in line with estimates and therefore did not materially move markets overnight.

Looking into today’s session, there are no notable economic reports and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.

Today is Quadruple Witching options expiration which means volumes will be elevated as will the risk of intraday volatility.

The main driver of the market will likely remain bond yields as a continued spike beyond 1.75% in the 10-year will again pressure the tech sector which will drag down stocks broadly. If bonds show signs of stabilizing though, stocks may be able to recoup a good portion of yesterday’s losses.

 

Tom Essaye Quoted in FXEmpire.com on March 16, 2021

/in , /by

Waiting on the Federal Reserve’s Press Conference

As reported in MarketWatch, analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in their latest newsletter that, “Gold is attempting to stabilize after the recent pullback, but if Treasury’s bonds continue to fall sharply, prompting yields…” Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Nasdaq on March 17, 2021

/in , /by

Already Up 130%, This ETF Is Set to Soar Post-COVID

“Now, with COVID ending and the labor market improving, it stands to reason that people who receive a check but that also might now be experiencing financial hardship will…” said Tom Essaye, editor of the Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on March 17, 2021

/in , /by

U.S. supply climbs a 4th week and after IEA deems supercycle unlikely

“As long as demand continues to climb…the weather-related issues in the U.S. energy industry are resolved, and there are no policy surprises from OPEC+ participants, then the backdrop…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the FOMC Decision Means for Markets
  • FOMC Takeaways
  • EIA Data Analysis and Oil Update

Stock futures are under pressure this morning (Nasdaq futures down over 1%) as the 10 year Treasury yield approached a new 52-week high of 1.75% overnight amid further digestion of yesterday’s Fed decision and lingering inflation concerns.

There were no notable economic reports or market moving headlines overnight.

Today, there are two important economic releases to watch ahead of the bell: Jobless Claims (E: 700K) and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (E: 24.0) as investors will be looking for continued improvement in these two current month data points.

There are no Fed officials speaking today however the Treasury will hold a 10-Yr TIPS auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and if the outcome triggers a further spike in the 10 year yield, expect selling pressure on tech shares to weigh on the broader equity markets as the Fed decision continues to be digested.

Fed Day: Key Levels to Watch

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Key Levels to Watch in the Wake of the Fed
  • Retail Sales Report Takeaways: Not as Bad as It Looked

Stock futures are little changed this morning following a mostly quiet night of news as global markets collectively look ahead to the Fed today.

Economically, Eurozone HICP (their CPI equivalent) met estimates of 0.2% in February which did not cause much movement in markets this morning.

Today, there is one economic report due to be released before the bell: Housing Starts and Permits (E: 1.579M, 1.725M) but the release is unlikely to materially move markets as investors are already largely focused on the Fed.

The FOMC Meeting Announcement and Economic Projections will hit at 2:00 p.m. ET and Chair Powell’s Press Conference will begin around 2:30 p.m. ET.

As discussed in yesterday’s full FOMC Preview, the market wants to see acknowledgment of the recent rise in yields and some degree of a pledge to act with new policies to combat that rise. If Powell fails to deliver such a confidence boost, expect a volatile market reaction across asset classes.

FOMC Preview

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview

U.S. equity futures are little changed this morning as yesterday’s late day sprint to fresh records is digested ahead of the Fed meeting while bond markets remain calm.

Economically, Germany’s March ZEW Survey came in slightly better than expected which is supporting modest risk on money flows in both European and U.S. markets.

From a potential catalyst standpoint, it is lining up to be a busy morning with several notable economic reports due to be released including: Retail Sales (E: -0.5%), Import & Export Prices (E: 1.0%, 1.0%) and Industrial Production (E: 0.5%).

However with the FOMC meeting beginning today, there will likely be some degree of “Fed paralysis” that limits the market’s reaction to any of this morning’s data points.

One thing that could move markets despite focus already shifting to the Fed is the 20-Yr Treasury Bond Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET today as a disappointing auction could trigger another spike in yields which would in turn weigh on stocks, particularly the tech sector.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Courthouse News Service on March 12, 2021

/in , /by

“The macro forces that have caused this rotation from growth/tech to value/cyclicals haven’t abated, at all. If anything, they’ve gotten stronger…” Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report wrote earlier in the week. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomberg on March 12, 2021

/in , /by

“You have a bunch of momentum and speculative buyers that have come…” said Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter, which tracks daily gyrations in the market. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on March 11, 2021

/in , /by

At least gold still hasn’t breached a key lower level. It is “comfortably above increasingly…” Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research, wrote in a note—if $20 can be considered comfortable. Click here to read the full article.