Futures are slightly lower following a very quiet weekend of news as markets wait for…writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are little changed amid a stable bond market this morning following good economic data while focus shifts to the unofficial start of earnings season and the latest consumer inflation report in the U.S.
Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index came in at 102.5 vs. (E) 99.2 for the month of June.
Today, earnings will come into focus as the big banks kick off the Q2 reporting season. Notable companies releasing results today include: JPM ($3.05), GS ($9.57), PEP ($1.52), and FAST ($0.41).
The latest U.S. inflation data will also be released ahead of the opening bell: CPI (0.5% m/m, 5.0% y/y) while there are several Fed officials scheduled to speak in the afternoon: Bostic (12:00 p.m. & 2:30 p.m. ET), Kashkari (12:45 p.m. ET), Rosengren (2:50 p.m. ET).
Bottom line, the number of influences on equities clearly picks up today and for stocks to hold the latest record highs we will need to see 1) earnings at least meet estimates, 2) CPI data not run “hot,” and 3) Fed chatter remain accommodative and importantly not take a hawkish turn.
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What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly lower following a very quiet weekend of news as markets wait for the start of earnings this week along with updated inflation data.
G-20 finance ministers agreed to move forward with a plan for a global minimum tax, but this remains a very, very long way from actual implementation.
China’s reserve requirement ratio cut remained top of the news but it’s unlikely to provide major stimulus and as such it’s not a material bullish catalyst for global stocks.
Today there are no economic reports and just two Fed speakers: Williams (9:30 a.m. ET) and Kashkari (12:00 p.m. ET). As was the case last week, we expect yields to dictate trading in stocks, so if Treasury yields continue to bounce, stocks should extend Friday’s rally.
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S equity futures are rebounding with European shares this morning while bond yields are rising from multi-month lows as investors digest a volatile week amid economic uncertainty and renewed COVID-19 concerns.
Economically, Chinese inflation data was “cooler” than expected with June CPI falling from 1.3% to 1.1% vs. (E) 1.4%, helping solidify the idea that inflation has peaked.
Looking ahead to today’s session, the calendar is quiet as there are no notable economic reports and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.
That will likely leave investors to focus on any developments regarding the Delta variant of COVID-19 and any subsequent lockdown measures as well as price action in the bond market. As long as coronavirus headlines are not materially negative and bond yields extend this morning’s bounce, stocks should be able to claw back more of yesterday’s losses.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are sharply lower along with most international equity markets this morning while bond yields are extending recent declines amid new COVID-19 concerns.
Japanese Prime Minister, Yoshihide Suga, issued a state of emergency for Tokyo overnight and the latest reports suggest spectators will be banned from the summer Olympics which is weighing heavily on investor sentiment today.
10-Year yields are down another 7 basis points in early trade while travel and leisure shares are leading markets lower in the pre-market, underscoring concerns about the state of the economic recovery and emerging concerns surrounding the Delta variant of COVID-19.
Today, there is just one economic report: Jobless Claims (E: 353K) and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.
Investors will be looking for a continued drop in the weekly jobless claims data but focus will likely be on COVID-19 trends and the latest lockdown developments as the health of the economic recovery is reassessed.
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. stock futures are trading modestly higher with tech shares outperforming (Nasdaq futures are at a fresh record) as bond yields continue to fall to multi-month lows ahead of the Fed Minutes release this afternoon.
Economically, German Industrial Production fell -0.3% vs. (E) +0.5% in May, adding to a recent string of disappointing global economic data that has been pressuring bond yields.
Today, there is just one economic report to watch: May JOLTS (E 9.30M), and while it’s a dated release, some components of the report could shed some new light on the current trends of the labor market.
Looking to the Fed, the release of the June FOMC Meeting Minutes (2:00 p.m. ET) will be the main focus today as investors look for further clarity on the Committee’s taper timeline and eventual plans for raising rates. Additionally, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks at 3:30 p.m. ET.
As I said in my morning report, for the first time in years, I’m actually worried about a too…said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full interview.
Markets will want ‘Goldilocks’ data to start the quarter, in that the numbers show solid…writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are little changed with investors focused on OPEC+’s failure to reach a new output policy agreement yesterday while economic data was mixed overnight.
OPEC+ called off a follow-up meeting yesterday after the UAE would not agree to extending production cuts through 2022 which drove oil to new multi-year highs in overnight trading as current cuts will remain in place by default, deepening supply deficit expectations for the second half of the year.
Economically, Final Composite PMI reports were mostly as expected while EU Retail Sales topped estimates but none of the data materially moved markets overnight.
Today, there is just one notable economic report to watch: ISM Services Index (E: 63.5), and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak. That will leave investors focused on the oil market in the wake of the OPEC+ developments as well as awaiting any news on infrastructure as the calendar is otherwise fairly quiet as we start the holiday-shortened trading week today.
This is the first quarter where we can honestly say it looked more like the…says Tom Essaye, a former trader who writes the Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.
