The 219 billion-cubic-foot weekly fall in U.S. supplies of the fuel reported by the Energy Information Administration Thursday leaves stockpiles more than 10% below last year’s levels…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
Yesterday’s FOMC decision and Powell’s presser was both positive and negative for markets, but in the end, it mostly reinforced what we know: The Fed is serious about raising rates, that’s going to continue to…Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report, said in a note. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly lower as markets continue to digest Wednesday’s Fed decision (50 bps in March or five hikes in 2022) amidst mixed earnings results.
AAPL posted better than expected earnings and the stock was up 3% overnight, but overall results continue to be mixed and that’s contributing to market volatility.
Today’s focus will be on important inflation data and the reason is clear: If the inflation data is materially stronger than estimates, that will only encourage the Fed to get more hawkish/unpredictable, and that will add to the headwinds on stocks. The key inflation numbers to watch today are: Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.5%, 4.8%), Employment Cost Index: (E: 1.2%, 4.1%), and the Inflation Expectations in the 10:00 a.m. Consumer Sentiment Index.
We also get some notable earnings today, including CAT ($2.22), CVX ($3.10), SYC ($1.47), and CL ($0.79). But, barring a major disappointment, they shouldn’t move markets.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are little changed and recouped modest losses earlier this morning, as global markets digest yesterday’s Fed decision and mixed earnings.
Economic data was sparse as German Gfk Consumer Climate and UK Distributive Trades both slightly beat estimates.
Today will be a busy day of data and earnings and generally speaking markets need solid data and good earnings/guidance to help this market continue to stabilize. Some reports we’re watching include: Jobless Claims (E: 265K), Durable Goods (E: -0.5%), Initial Q4 ‘21 GDP (5.7%) and Pending Home Sales (E :0.6%).
On the earnings front, the key report today is AAPL ($1.89) after the close, but other reports we’re watching include: MA ($2.19), MCD ($2.31), JBLU (-$0.40), LUV ($0.05), VLO ($1.69), SHW ($1.35), V ($1.69).
I wouldn’t go into treasuries. I think that inflation is here to stay. We don’t know exactly how high it will be, but it’s here to stay, and that’s negative for bonds…said Tom Essaye. Click here to watch the full interview.
The problem is that unlike 2013, the economy has an inflation problem, and the Fed is under enormous political pressure to rein in inflation…Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report noted. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are firmly higher as trader focus shifts ahead to the Fed while investors digest mostly upbeat earnings.
MSFT initially fell by 7%+ after earnings yesterday but a positive outlook by management during the investor call has helped shares turn positive and rise by more than 4%.
Looking into today’s session, there are two economic reports due out this morning: International Trade in Goods (E: -$95.1B) and New Home Sales (E 760K) but neither should move markets ahead of the FOMC Announcement (2:00 p.m. ET) and Fed Chair Press Conference (2:30 p.m. ET) which will be the main events today.
Earnings today include: BA (-$0.09), T ($0.76), FCX ($0.96), PGR ($0.99), TSLA ($2.26), INTC ($0.90), STX ($2.36), RJF ($1.77).
Bottom line, the market is coiled up after the volatile start to the week and whether the Fed is dovish or hawkish today will decide whether we see a relief rally or break down to new lows.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are trading off of the overnight lows but still down roughly 1% as yesterday’s volatile session is digested ahead of the Fed while IBM posted strong Q4 earnings yesterday and economic data largely met estimates overnight.
The FOMC meeting begins today which will increasingly capture trader focus ahead of tomorrow’s announcement and press conference.
Economically, we get two reports on the housing market this morning: the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 1.0%) and the FHFA House Price Index (E: 1.0%) but Consumer Confidence (E: 111.9) will be the more important number to watch given the growing uncertainty about the state of the economic recovery. Another bad print like we saw with yesterday’s Composite PMI Flash could send stocks lower.
There is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and investors will be looking for strong demand (which would reflect dovish shifting Fed expectations) as we saw with yesterday’s 2-Yr auction which helped stocks bottom and reversed so sharply in intraday trade.
Finally, on the earnings front, we will hear from: JNJ ($2.12), VZ ($1.28), GE ($0.83), MMM ($2.03), and AXP ($1.78) before the open, and then MSFT ($2.29), TXN ($1.95), and COF ($5.14) after the close.
A surge in risk-off money flows in the back half of the week have caused oil futures to give back the bulk of this week’s gains…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
Several companies cited higher costs as impacting profitability, furthering margin concerns…wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
