Five Catalysts to Determine the Year
Futures are modestly lower, Concerns about China (both trade and the economy) are the most cited reason for the mild dip this morning, Japanese retail sales beat estimates, and more.
Author Archive for: Tom Essaye
Entries by Tom Essaye
Are Commodities Bottoming?
US futures are flat this morning, the German GfK Consumer Climate edged down, oil prices are slightly higher this morning, today, trade will continue to dominate the headlines and much more.
Valuation Update (New Target)
Futures are slightly higher this morning, trade concerns continue to ease after yesterday’s favorable developments, progress on trade and the subsequent decline in the dollar index and more.
New Highs
New Highs: Futures are extending Friday’s gains, the yuan strengthened to a one month, the only notable econ report was German IFO Business sentiment, there are no notable economic reports and no important Fed speakers and more.
The Key to a Weaker Dollar (And Higher Stock Prices)
The key to a weaker dollar (And Higher Stock Prices), U.S./China trade talks ended, today the key event to watch is the Powell speech from Jackson Hole, futures are modestly higher following a generally quiet night of news and more.
What Makes Politics a Bearish Gamechanger
Futures are little changed following a quiet night as the August flash, on trade, the WSJ said odds of the 200 billion additional Chinese tariffs, from a trading standpoint today, any trade headlines (positive or negative) will likely move markets.
Good, Bad, Ugly Chart
Futures are modestly lower, Trump headlines dominated the newswires overnight, oil futures are up over 1% after the API reported a -5.1M bbl supply draw. As far as catalysts go today, the media will likely be fixated on the Cohen/Manafort drama.
Contrarian View: Emerging Markets
Stock futures are cautiously higher today as the dollar continues to pullback, the dollar is down another 30 basis points+, British CBI Industrial Trends Survey was a mild miss at 7 vs. (E) 10, and more.
U.S. & China Trade Progress?
Markets will stay focused on 1) Trade headlines, 2) The dollar and 3) the tech sector. Trade should stay quiet into the U.S./China meetings Wed/Thursday. The dollar is bouncing from Friday’s declines and sustained dollar weakness remains the biggest key to a breakout in stocks, so any weakness there will be welcomed by investors.
Worried About Tech
If tech can stay stable despite recent soft earnings, and the dollar doesn’t rally, then stocks can generally hold yesterday’s gains.