Earnings update and outlook, U.S. futures are tracking global shares lower on renewed economic growth concerns after Chinese GDP hit a near three-decade low of +6.6% in 2018 while the IMF reduced 2019 global economic growth forecasts to 3.5% from 3.7%, today there is just one economic report to watch: Existing Home Sales and more.
Futures are moderately higher thanks to rising U.S./China trade optimism, yesterday’s WSJ article that stated U.S. officials are considering reducing China tariffs spurred a global rally, despite being disputed by administration officials, economic data was mildly disappointing as Japanese CPI (0.7% vs. (E) 0.8%) and UK Retail Sales (-0.9% vs. (E) -0.8%) both slightly missed estimates, although neither report is moving markets and more.
Equity Risk Premium Update – better, but not good, updated oil outlook, today focus will remain on earning and we get some notable consumer companies reporting (in addition to more banks) and more.
An Update from Dr. Copper (mildly encouraging), futures are up modestly, economically, Japanese Machine Orders badly missed expectations in November, today, the government shutdown is going to start affecting the flow of economic data as the December Retail report will not be released. To that point, concerns are starting to build about the economic headwinds the shutdown will have as it drags on, and eventually those worries will begin to weigh on stocks. and more.
Citi Earnings: Not a bad start to the season, Brexit “Meaningful Vote” preview, U.S. futures are modestly higher this morning, tracking gains in Asian shares thanks to chatter of further stimulus measures by the Chinese government, there are three Fed speakers today: Kashkari (11:30 a.m. ET), Kaplan (1:00 p.m. ET), and George (1:00 p.m. ET) and more.
Market Outlook (After the Bounce), weekly economic cheat sheet (important first looks at January data), weekly market preview (all about earnings), futures, Chinese exports badly missed expectations and more.
Earnings Season Preview: Two important factors, futures are slightly lower despite generally good news overnight, today is all about the CPI report (E: -0.1% m/m, 1.9% y/y). Both the headline and core need to stay around 2.0% yoy for this “dovish” Fed narrative to continue to grow, as a hot CPI report could undo some of the rally markets have enjoyed since last Friday and more.
Technical Market Update – Bounce or Bottom?, U.S./China Trade Update (What’s Next and What Sectors Benefit), Futures are modestly lower as markets digest the recent rally following a quiet night of news. Today focus will remain on the Fed as we get multiple Fed speakers, highlighted by Fed Chair Powell (1:00 PM) and Vice Chair Clarida (5:30 PM) and more.
Some improvement in the Economic Breaker Panel: Three breakers tripped, January update, futures are cautiously higher this morning mostly thanks to optimism about the US-China trade situation as “mid-level” meetings concluded in Beijing overnight, President Trump’s address to the nation last night regarding border security and the government shutdown did not have a material effect on markets and more.
Some encouraging signs from credit, futures are higher with international shares, today, there is one economic report to watch: International Trade (E: -$53.9B) which has been more closely watched since U.S.-China trade tensions first escalated while there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak and more.