A make or break week for the rally (key catalysts to watch), why last week was better than it seemed, futures are modestly lower following an uneventful weekend, the government shutdown ended on Friday but the shutdown was never an influence on stocks so the resolution isn’t going to be a positive catalyst and more.
Positive news on the U.S. consumer (good for stocks), futures are moderately higher thanks to a dovish Fed article in the WSJ and more solid earnings (SBUX), the WSJ reported that Fed officials are considering ending their balance sheet reduction earlier than expected, and that’s helped lift futures & more.
A sector with relative clarity (and opportunity), futures are slightly higher, January flash PMIs in Japan and the EU were disappointing, today the big number is the U.S. Flash Composite PMI (E: 54.2), as markets are looking for more signs of economic stabilization following the loss of momentum in December and more.
Dow theory update, existing home sales analysis, US futures are bouncing modestly as yesterday’s spike in volatility is digested while major averages in Europe and Asia were little changed during a quiet night of trade and more.
Earnings update and outlook, U.S. futures are tracking global shares lower on renewed economic growth concerns after Chinese GDP hit a near three-decade low of +6.6% in 2018 while the IMF reduced 2019 global economic growth forecasts to 3.5% from 3.7%, today there is just one economic report to watch: Existing Home Sales and more.
Futures are moderately higher thanks to rising U.S./China trade optimism, yesterday’s WSJ article that stated U.S. officials are considering reducing China tariffs spurred a global rally, despite being disputed by administration officials, economic data was mildly disappointing as Japanese CPI (0.7% vs. (E) 0.8%) and UK Retail Sales (-0.9% vs. (E) -0.8%) both slightly missed estimates, although neither report is moving markets and more.
Equity Risk Premium Update – better, but not good, updated oil outlook, today focus will remain on earning and we get some notable consumer companies reporting (in addition to more banks) and more.
An Update from Dr. Copper (mildly encouraging), futures are up modestly, economically, Japanese Machine Orders badly missed expectations in November, today, the government shutdown is going to start affecting the flow of economic data as the December Retail report will not be released. To that point, concerns are starting to build about the economic headwinds the shutdown will have as it drags on, and eventually those worries will begin to weigh on stocks. and more.
Citi Earnings: Not a bad start to the season, Brexit “Meaningful Vote” preview, U.S. futures are modestly higher this morning, tracking gains in Asian shares thanks to chatter of further stimulus measures by the Chinese government, there are three Fed speakers today: Kashkari (11:30 a.m. ET), Kaplan (1:00 p.m. ET), and George (1:00 p.m. ET) and more.
Market Outlook (After the Bounce), weekly economic cheat sheet (important first looks at January data), weekly market preview (all about earnings), futures, Chinese exports badly missed expectations and more.