“My biggest concern for this market remains that we get an unexpected economic slowdown because that’s one of the few events that can legitimately cause a material correction in stocks,” writes Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye, noting that his worry ticked up last week due to corporate earnings.
The market’s bullish hopes for some degree of commitment to ‘price stability’ via the potential for further production cuts were dashed…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.
Traders will be keenly focused on the EIA data, particularly its measure of implied gasoline demand, said analysts at Sevens Report Research, in a note.
“The market just seems like it can’t find the middle,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s in a phone interview.
“For now, investors still view ‘bad data as good for stocks’ as it makes rate cuts more likely so a small miss vs. expectations should extend the early rally,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye.
Breadth matters because it basically speaks to investor conviction about fundamentals, Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye tells Barron’s.
“With stocks sitting on record highs investors will need to see economic data that remains ‘goldilocks,’ the absence of any hawkish Fed surprises, steady yields, good retailer earnings, and solid guidance from AI bellwether Nvidia to meaningfully advance beyond current levels,” Tom Essaye at the Sevens Report said in a note to clients.
“The key is whether the data warrants a hike and there’s virtually nothing in the day that implies a hike is needed,” Sevens Report Reserach’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s.
Gasoline supplied was “the most important figure in the release as it is a key, high-frequency proxy for consumer gasoline demand and ultimately consumer sentiment and a gauge on general willingness to spend discretionary money,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.
Analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Tuesday’s newsletter that the crash was deemed to be “an accident and had no relation to the recent geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, which allowed for some of the fear bids added on Friday ahead of the weekend to come unwound” at the start of Monday’s trading.