“I think the trade [on the social media stocks] is to stand back a bit and see how this shakes out. It seems like some sort of regulation on the social media and…” said Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade.
Click here to watch the full interview.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly lower as markets digest the week’s gains ahead of the China press conference and Powell speech.
Economic data was mixed overnight as German Retail Sales beat estimates (-5.3% vs. (E) -11%), while Japanese IP and Retail Sales both missed expectations.
U.S./China tensions continue to tick higher as China said it would retaliate to any sanctions over the Hong Kong law.
Today the big event is the Trump/China press conference, and the key is this: As long as there’s no reason for the markets to think the “trade truce” is in jeopardy, any market fallout from more sanctions on China should be relatively modest.
Away from China, we get two notable economic reports today, Core PCE Price Index (E: -0.3%) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 73.9) and a speech by Fed Chair Powell (11:00 a.m. ET). But, that’s unlikely to move markets unless there’s a surprise revealed (and that’s not likely as Fed policy is pretty well known at this point).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are little changed following a generally quiet night of news.
China’s legislature approved new security legislation for Hong Kong, further escalating tensions with the U.S. But, for now, markets are ignoring it.
Economically, the only notable number was EU Economic Sentiment which missed expectations (67.5 vs. (E) 70.5).
Today focus will be on economic data as we get multiple important reports including, in order of importance: Jobless Claims (E: 2.050M), Durable Goods Orders (E: -18.5%), Revised Q2 GDP (E: -4.8%), and Pending Home Sales Index (E: -15.5%). We also get one Fed speaker: Williams (11:00 a.m. ET).
Finally, the administration keeps teasing a “response” to China passing the Hong Kong security legislation, and while markets have been able to ignore the uptick in U.S./China tension, that won’t last forever if tensions continue to rise.
What’s in Today’s Report:
S&P futures are up well over 1% this morning as newly proposed economic stimulus plans in Europe and Japan, which total nearly $2T, are offsetting U.S.-China tensions.
The European Commission announced plans for another 750B euro economic recovery package overnight while Japan is planning $1.1T in new stimulus to help stabilize growth.
Hong Kong protests due to China’s proposed national security laws weighed on Asian shares overnight and stoked concerns of rising tensions between the U.S. and China.
Today, there are no notable economic reports due to be released in the U.S. and just one Fed speaker to watch midday: Bullard (12:30 p.m. ET).
There is a 5-Yr Treasury Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which could move rates, impact the curve and ultimately affect stocks but the market’s primary focus will remain on coronavirus treatment/vaccine development, economic reopening progress, and simmering U.S.-China trade tensions.
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. equity futures are trading higher with global markets today amid investor optimism for reopenings and reports of further progress on COVID-19 treatments/vaccines.
Novavax was the latest company to begin human testing for its coronavirus vaccine over the weekend which is helping drive risk-on money flows this morning.
Today, there are several economic reports due to be released: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI (E: 0.3%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.6%), Consumer Confidence (E: 88.3), and New Home Sales (E: 495K).
Additionally, there is one Fed official scheduled to speak: Kashkari (1:00 p.m. ET) and the Treasury will hold a 2-Yr T-Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Beyond those potential catalysts, investor focus will remain on the economic reopening process around the globe and any additional information regarding potential COVID-19 vaccines or treatments.
Futures prices traded in contango last month, when the May contract settled negative ahead of its expiration, but the move into backwardation “shows that there is both strong demand for physical crude…” says Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
“A vaccine would be a bullish game changer, and stocks reacted accordingly,” Tom Essaye, author of “The Sevens Report” newsletter, wrote in a note. “But one day doesn’t make a sustainable…” Click here to read the full article.
Futures prices traded in contango last month, when the May contract settled at a negative price on April 20, a day ahead of its expiration. “There was limited refinery demand and clearly…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
“A vaccine would be a bullish game changer, and stocks reacted accordingly,” Tom Essaye, author of “The Sevens Report” newsletter, wrote in a note. “But one day doesn’t make a…” Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. equity futures are up more than 1% this morning, recovering the bulk of yesterday’s late afternoon declines amid continued hopes for a looming economic recovery.
Economically, Japanese Machine Orders for March declined -0.4% after rising 2.3% in February while inflation statistics in Europe were on the soft side, but none of the data materially moved markets overnight.
There are no notable economic reports today however the Treasury will hold a 20-Year Bond Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, and as we have seen so far this year, any resulting move in yields (specifically the curve) could influence equity market trading.
There are also a few potential Fed catalysts today with two speakers on the schedule: Bostic (10:00 a.m. ET) and Bullard (12:00 p.m. ET), and the release of the FOMC meeting minutes at 2:00 p.m. ET.
The market remains primarily focused on the still very fluid coronavirus outbreak situation and economic reopening process, as well as any further developments about vaccines or treatments. Any positive headlines, specifically regarding the latter, could help power stocks to fresh multi-week highs today, while contrarily, negative news could see a repeat of yesterday’s late day selloff.
