What Does the Rate Cut Mean for Markets?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Does the Fed Rate Cut Mean for Markets?
  • Which Market Sectors Benefit from the Rate Cut?
  • FOMC Decision Takeaways

Futures are sharply higher as Biden, the more business and market friendly Democratic candidate, had a strong showing on “Super Tuesday” while the coronavirus outbreak fueled further optimism for more stimulus globally.

COVID-19 cases have topped 93K with a death toll over 3,100.

HPE was the latest company to cut 2020 guidance due to the coronavirus while the Caixin China Services PMI fell from 51.8 in January to a record low of 26.5 in February, also citing the virus outbreak as the primary reason for the weakness.

Looking into today’s session, there are two economic reports to watch: The ADP Employment Report will hit first (E: 170K), but then, more importantly, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (E: 55.1) is due out shortly after the open and it could be a major catalyst for further gains (if it is good) or more volatility (if is badly misses expectations).

Lastly, the St. Louis Fed’s Bullard will speak twice today (11:00 a.m., 6:30 p.m. ET) and any indication on the Fed’s future policy plans could also have a significant influence on markets with the coronavirus outbreak still being closely watched by investors.

Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch on March 2, 2020

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Investors may be hoping a March rate cut stops the bleeding in the stock market, but Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye said Friday that another rate cut might be a bearish signal for the economy.

“While this is a fairly unique situation that the markets have rarely seen in the past, especially in the age of high-frequency trading houses and 24 hour, instant news sources, if the Fed does indeed cut rates in the coming months as the markets are pricing in, then it will mark…” Essaye said. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Headshot

Market Multiple Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Update

Futures are trading higher this morning while international markets were mixed overnight as investors weighed stimulus hopes against the continued spread of the coronavirus.

As cases of COVID-19 topped 90,000, the RBA was the first central bank to cut its official “cash rate” to a record low of 50 basis points overnight largely due to the outbreak.

Economically, the Eurozone HICP Flash for February and Unemployment Rate for January both met expectations overnight at 1.2% and 7.4%, respectively.

Today, there are a few potential catalysts to watch including one economic data point: Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 16.8M) and one Fed speaker after the close: Evans (6:30 p.m. ET), while politically, “Super Tuesday” will be in focus.

The coronavirus outbreak remains the single most important factor for global markets right now, however, and if there is a significant rise in reported cases of deaths related to the virus, this week’s risk-on money flows could begin to fade and potentially give way to more volatility.

Conversely, any news regarding emergency stimulus measures, especially by G7 nations could help this week’s rally extend higher.

Where Do Markets Go From Here?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Where Do Markets Go From Here?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Coronavirus news first, but it’s an important week from a data standpoint too
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Why Wednesday is the Most Important Day of the Week

Markets are trying to stabilize and futures are down modestly, but they have been volatile as futures have been down 1% and up 1% before trading back closer to flat.

If there’s a “reason” for the attempted rebound, it’s the surging expectation for a globally coordinated central bank response sometime later this week (possibly a 50 bps cut).

Coronavirus news remained negative in aggregate as cases increased in the U.S., although the news is no worse than what the market’s priced in last week.

Economically, the Chinese Feb. Manufacturing PMI imploded to 35.7 vs. (E) 46.0, but that wasn’t a surprise.  The data from the EU and Britain was solid.

Today the market will be driven by the latest coronavirus headlines, but there is an important economic report, the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 50.4), and a better than expected number would give the market a needed confidence boost.