Special Technical Analysis Report
What’s in Today’s Technical Report:
- Near and Medium-Term Trends and Risks in the S&P 500
- A Look at Current Dynamics in the Major U.S. Equity Indices
- Dow Theory Update
- Key Levels to Watch in the Dollar and Commodity Markets
- Equity Sector Dashboard (Bullish – Bearish – Neutral)
- Treasury Market Trend Analysis: Have Rates Peaked for the Cycle?
- What to Watch in the VIX
S&P 500 futures are little changed to start the week this morning. Last week’s pullback paused at a longer standing, multi-week uptrend line leaving the broader equity at a tipping point. How the market trades today will very likely decide if the S&P will continue to bleed lower or break last week’s downtrend and retest the recent highs.
The Nasdaq has been a notable outperformer this year but there are cracks emerging in the rally and we outline key levels to watch this week within the Report.
Among the sectors, we view five sectors as trending higher, four as market neutral, and two as trending lower.
In the currency and bond markets, both the dollar and multiple benchmark Treasury Notes have pulled back to critical price support zones and whether those levels hold or not will have a varying impact on all asset classes.
Commodities as an asset class have been fluctuating in a tight range in 2023 with gold outperforming and oil underperforming, but there are signs that oil is poised to take the lead in the complex and gold may be losing upside momentum.
Finally, the VIX is still deeply under pressure which is confusing many investors but we dive into the specific reasons for the movement in the index and what to look for in the weeks and months ahead as we continue to navigate this historically difficult market backdrop amid very uncertain macroeconomic dynamics.