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CPI remains the most important monthly economic metric

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CPI remains the most important monthly economic metric: Tom Essaye Quoted in MorningStar

Dow turns higher as Apple falls ahead of its iPhone event, with inflation data looming

“CPI remains the most important monthly economic metric for the simple reason that if CPI does not continue to decline, markets will have to price in a more hawkish Fed, and that would be a headwind on stocks,” said Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research, in a note Tuesday.

“Sensitivity to this report will be especially high tomorrow because there have been anecdotal signs that inflation may be leveling off or bouncing back,” he said.

A “good” CPI report would show core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, rose 0.2% or less in August, according to Essaye. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal have forecast that core CPI increased 0.2% last month and 4.3% year over year.

“A continued drop in core CPI will help to calm concerns that inflation is bouncing back, and that could trigger a solid drop in Treasury yields and a good relief rally in stocks,” said Essaye.

Also, click here to view the full Morningstar article published on September 12th, 2023. However, to see Tom’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Fundamental Focus of the Oil Market Has Shifted: Oil Futures

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Oil Futures Touch Fresh Highs: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Morningstar

Oil futures touch fresh highs for the year on bets for tighter global supplies

“The fundamental focus of the oil market has shifted from demand — more specifically concerns that a slowdown in global growth will hurt consumer spending on refined products — to the supply side as Russia and Saudi Arabia caught markets off guard with their output cut extension announcements,” analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Monday’s newsletter.

Factoring in the extended cuts, “many forecasts reflect deepening supply deficits in physical markets into the end of the year and that, paired with another wave of speculators getting scared out of the market by the latest OPEC+ surprise, has resulted in the latest leg higher to fresh 2023 highs in oil,” they said.

Looking ahead, the path of least resistance is higher for oil right now, with WTI “fast approaching our initial upside target of $89 [a] barrel,” the Sevens Report analysts said. “However, we remain in the camp that the onset of a recession will derail the rally.”

Also, click here to view the full Morningstar article published on September 11th, 2023. However, to see Tom’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more… To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Morningstar on August 13th, 2023

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A stumbling stock market faces a crucial summer test. Here’s what will decide the bull’s fate.

“This scenario would essentially undermine the three pillars of the rally, and as such investors should expect a substantial decline in stocks, even considering the recent pullback,” Tom Essaye said in a note last week. “In fact, a decline of much more than 10% would be likely in this scenario, as it would undermine most of the rationale for the gains in stocks since June (and perhaps all of 2023).”

Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in Morningstar on June 29th, 2023

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Oil futures finish higher, contributing to the month’s gain

Oil stabilized at support near the 2023 lows following Wednesday’s weekly Energy Information Administration report, which showed a “massive draw” in commercial crude-oil stockpiles, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in Morningstar on June 29th, 2023

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Oil prices notch back-to-back gains a day after data reveal a hefty drop in U.S. crude supplies

The EIA’s report showed the four-week moving average of gasoline supplied, a proxy for demand, rising to the highest level since November 2021. That strong consumer demand trend is one of the reasons why WTI oil hasn’t dropped to new 2023 lows in recent weeks said Richey. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Morningstar on June 27th, 2023

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Oil prices slump, shaking off Russia mutiny

Looking ahead, the turmoil within Russia is unlikely to have a material impact on oil markets unless we see it affect production or exports of oil. Looking ahead, the turmoil within Russia is unlikely to have a material impact on oil markets unless we see it affect production or exports of oil, said analysts at Sevens Report Research, in a note. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in MorningStar on February 16th, 2023

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Oil ends lower on signs of ‘sluggish’ U.S. consumer demand and a big build in supplies

The U.S. Energy Information Administration data so far this year has been “consistently bearish and pointed to sluggish consumer demand, hesitant refining activity, sizeable builds in oil stockpiles and incrementally rising domestic oil production,” analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Thursday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in MorningStar via MarketWatch on January 18th, 2023

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Gold ends lower as investors weigh Fed rate-hike talk, even as U.S. wholesale inflation and retail sales fall

Gold came into the week in overbought territory as the precious metals have enjoyed solid gains since the early November lows, thanks to the dual tailwinds of a falling dollar and declining interest rates,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in MorningStar on September 7th, 2022

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Gold prices mark highest finish in more than a week

If the recent dynamic of rising rates, a firming dollar, and fading inflation expectations continues, it is only a matter of time until gold breaks down through the bulls’ ‘line in the sand’ at $1,680 and hits new lows for the year…analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Wednesday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Quoted in MorningStar on September 2nd, 2022

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EMEA Morning Briefing: Stocks Seen Higher But Caution Likely Ahead of U.S. Jobs Report

The jobs report once again carries risks for stocks because if it runs ‘too hot,’ that will increase the prospects of more hikes and, more importantly, delay when markets expect rates will be cut, Sevens Report said. Click here to read the full article.