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Sevens Report: U.S. Labor Market Stable, But Cracks Emerging

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Thresholds in claims and unemployment could trigger sharp equity declines

What does a soft jobs market mean for markets?

Sevens Report said U.S. labor conditions remain broadly stable despite recent weak data, citing jobless claims below 250,000, continued positive payrolls, and JOLTS near 7 million.

The firm warned, however, that momentum is fading: hiring is slowing even as layoffs remain limited. Key thresholds include jobless claims above 260,000, a four-week average above 300,000, unemployment over 4.5%, and JOLTS falling under 6.5 million. Each would signal real deterioration.

On market impact, Sevens cautioned that a sharp labor downturn could drive a 15%–30% equity drop, with the S&P 500 potentially sliding 500–700 points initially. Defensive sectors such as staples, utilities, and healthcare would likely outperform, alongside lower-volatility ETFs and mega-cap tech if the AI trade holds.

“Bottom line, the labor market is not bad; however, it is losing momentum and this is something we need to watch carefully,” the report said.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on September 8th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report: Ethereum’s Rally vs. Bitcoin Raises Red Flags

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ETH/BTC rallies have historically aligned with equity blowoff tops

Why the long-ETH/short-BTC trade matters

According to the latest Sevens Report, Ethereum has “meaningfully outperformed Bitcoin with the Long-ETH/Short-BTC trade accelerating rapidly as both cryptos surged towards record highs.” While many traditional investors might dismiss the shift, Sevens emphasized that “there is a key underlying takeaway sourced in cross-asset analysis.”

Historically, sharp ETH/BTC rallies have coincided with “squeezy yet powerful rallies in equity markets preceding near-term blowoff tops.” Examples include the 2017 ETH/BTC surge ahead of the 2018 equity drawdown, a 2020 spike before the pandemic selloff, and a 2021 rally that foreshadowed the “Double Bear Market” of 2022.

Sevens noted that the latest 130% ETH/BTC rally off April lows “has obviously coincided with the resilient tech-led rally in stocks off the 2025 lows.” Unlike 2023–2024, when ETH lagged while equities climbed, the current setup suggests stocks may be vulnerable if crypto momentum fades.

“Bottom line, in prior cases over the last 10 years, every time we have seen such a robust and pronounced rise in the ETH/BTC crypto-pair, stocks have been sprinting higher in lockstep. However, once the upside momentum faded from ETH/BTC rally, it would have been prudent for equity investors to put their guard up,” Sevens concluded.

Also, click here to view the full article on Yahoo Finance published on August 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report: Tech Valuations Look Stretched Despite AI-Driven Leadership

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Massive demand for semiconductors and AI infrastructure fuels gains, but valuations raise sustainability concerns.

Tech Valuations Stretch as AI Boom Meets Investor Caution

According to the latest Sevens Report, “massive demand for semiconductors and AI infrastructure combined with the promise of AI driven leaps in profitability” have made technology the undisputed leader of the S&P 500’s advance.

But valuations now appear difficult to justify. Sevens highlighted Palantir as “the most obvious example,” calling it “a stock that is the best performer in the S&P 500 YTD but also trades at a quasi-absurd 212X forward earnings!” Even broad-based exchange-traded funds such as XLK are trading at “above 29X earnings, a level that hasn’t proven historically sustainable.”

Recent declines in AI-related names, driven by disappointing reactions to earnings at CoreWeave, Applied Materials and Cisco, provided a small relief to valuations. But Sevens warned that “the ‘bar’ to impress investors in the AI names is high.”

With rate cuts expected next month, investors are also rotating into more cyclical sectors such as utilities, industrials and financials. Still, finding value in technology remains a challenge for new money. “The reality is that finding value in the tech space is a challenge, especially for new money that needs to be allocated but doesn’t want to chase sky-high valuations,” Sevens said.

The report suggested that investors can still participate in the AI-driven rally while managing risk by using alternative ETF strategies. These include equal-weight and smart beta approaches, as well as income-focused ETFs that “boost yield, and in doing so lower the aggregate valuation of the ETF.”

“Alternative tech strategies that can complement core tech holdings can lower overall tech valuations in a client portfolio, yet still provide exposure to the key names in the space,” concluded Sevens.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on August 21st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What the Bad Jobs Report Means for Markets

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Sevens Report sees no recession yet, but warns of rising anxiety

What the bad jobs report means for markets

“The jobs report was a major disappointment, but job adds are still positive, so it’s not signaling any sort of recession or slowdown,” Sevens wrote Monday.

Sevens Report noted that the report is often the “most inaccurate” of economic data, prone to distortions and revisions—especially during the summer. Broader indicators like jobless claims and the JOLTS survey remain stable, offering a more balanced picture of the labor market.

Tariff announcements on Friday were also shrugged off. Sevens said the moves were “largely in line with expectations” and that the market reaction reflected sentiment rather than surprise. “The S&P 500 gave zero room for disappointment,” the firm noted.

Looking ahead, Tuesday’s ISM Services PMI could be critical. A drop below 50 may fuel recession fears and push stocks lower, while a stable reading above 50 would help settle nerves.

With defensive sectors outperforming late last week, Sevens advised staying balanced: “If you’re very light defensives, you may want to be ready to boost them if data is soft.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on August 4th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

AI Bubble Fears Grow as Chip Stocks Diverge From Broader Market

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Sevens Report urges caution as SOX index lags S&P 500 gains

5 big analyst AI moves: Microsoft upgraded on Azure growth, chip stocks PTs raised

Sevens Report Research warned Friday that a growing disconnect between AI chip stocks and the broader equity market could be an early signal of an “AI bubble.”

“Every bubble in modern market history has been based on a narrative,” the firm wrote, calling AI technology the latest potentially bubble-inflating theme.

While Nvidia often draws attention as the face of the AI rally, Sevens cautioned that single-stock enthusiasm—especially driven by a “cult following”—can obscure broader market signals.

“It would be much more prudent to keep tabs on the broader-based semiconductor index, SOX,” the report said. Despite strong gains in the S&P 500 since July 2024, SOX has failed to post a new high, raising red flags.

“If AI remains the primary source of bullish optimism… this market is in trouble and at risk of rolling over sooner than later,” the report concluded, likening the broader market to Wile E. Coyote running off a cliff.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on August 3rd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Co-Editor Says $750B EU Energy Deal Carries Financial Asterisk

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Tyler Richey, Co-Editor, Sevens Report Research Quoted by MarketWatch.

The Energy Report: They Said It Couldn’t Be Done

“If there are plans to more rapidly expand Europe’s nuclear power capacity by utilizing U.S.-based companies, and the power-plant construction, operation, long-term fuel fulfillment contracts, and future reactor services (some of which can be decades long) are all included in that $750 [billion] ‘headline number,’ then there could be a case made that the pulled-forward dollar amount of future operations could boost the value of the deal,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

However, that scenario would require some “financial engineering” to achieve the $750 billion, which would “leave the realistic dollar amount of the deal carrying an asterisk based on the three-year timeline mentioned,” Richey told MarketWatch.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on July 29th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Erode this idea of solid structure of the government

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Erode this idea of solid structure of the government: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

Trump attacks on Powell a “potentially large negative” for markets – Sevens Report

In a note to clients, the Sevens Report analysts argued that if Trump moves to encroach on the Fed’s independence, it could lead to a legal showdown that would exacerbate recent worries over an uncertain business outlook, and possibly send the benchmark S&P 500 down below 5,000.

“Put plainly, global investors buy U.S. assets and come to the U.S. to innovate because they know the rules (the court system is well established and broadly viewed as impartial) and these rules don’t change based on the latest elections or on which power is in control in Washington,” the analysts wrote.

Trump’s recent scathing attacks on Powell, however, “erode this idea of solid structure of the government and as such, erode the idea of American economic exceptionalism,” they added.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Investing.com published on April 22nd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

It’s premature to relax on tariff concerns

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It’s premature to relax on tariff concerns: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

Strategist explains why tariff fears shouldn’t be exaggerated

The stock market’s rally this week, driven by the absence of immediate tariff announcements under President Trump’s new administration, has led some investors to believe tariff risks may have been overstated, according to the latest Sevens Report.

However, Sevens warned that it’s premature to relax on tariff concerns, highlighting potential volatility ahead.

“‘Day One’ of the Trump administration contained no blatant and additional tariff threats, as investors had feared,” Sevens Report analysts noted.

Yet, they cautioned, “tariff headlines will remain a consistent source of short-term volatility in markets this year.”

The report points out that Trump’s administration cannot unilaterally impose tariffs without first building a legal case.

“It’s not a surprise that Trump didn’t announce any new tariffs yet, Said the firm, adding that presidents do not have the power to just decree tariffs, especially with trading partners under existing legal trade treaties approved by Congress.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Investing.com published on January 24th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Burden Of Proof Lies Squarely With The Bears

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Futures Are Slightly Higher: Sevens Report Quoted in Investing.com

Despite the S&P 500 rally, there are a number of risks emerging – Sevens Report

The burden of proof lies squarely with the bears and so far, the economic data and Fed speak hasn’t done enough to disprove any of those four bullish factors,” wrote the firm.

However, Sevens Research said the reality is there are still a number of risks emerging that need to be watched, and amidst 5k euphoria, they think that needs to be pointed out.

“Yes, data has pointed to a sweet spot for growth, inflation and the Fed. But that won’t last forever and there will be bad news for this market, there always is,” they added.

The firm notes that the risks that have quietly grown in the background during the rally are the chances of rate cut disappointment, the growing list of layoffs, commercial real estate, and valuations.

“Bottom line, it’s important to acknowledge that this rally has been driven by actual good news and bullish expectations being reinforced by actual data. At the same time, the risks that kept investors worried in October (and even throughout 2023) haven’t been vanquished—they simply haven’t shown up, yet,” concluded Sevens.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on February 13th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

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Very Lofty Valuations: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

These five market assumptions are ‘aggressively optimistic’ – Sevens Report

Sevens Research said the S&P 500 is starting 2024 trading at “a very lofty” 19.5X valuation. While they don’t believe the valuation is unjustified, they do believe it makes several key, positive assumptions about critical market influences in the coming year.

Sevens argues that while the market assumptions “aren’t necessarily wrong,” the “assumptions are aggressively optimistic, and it is how events unfold versus these expectations and not on an absolute scale that will determine how stocks and bonds trade to start the year.”

Also, click here to view the full Investing.com article published on January 2nd, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.