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The Burden Of Proof Lies Squarely With The Bears

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Futures Are Slightly Higher: Sevens Report Quoted in Investing.com

Despite the S&P 500 rally, there are a number of risks emerging – Sevens Report

The burden of proof lies squarely with the bears and so far, the economic data and Fed speak hasn’t done enough to disprove any of those four bullish factors,” wrote the firm.

However, Sevens Research said the reality is there are still a number of risks emerging that need to be watched, and amidst 5k euphoria, they think that needs to be pointed out.

“Yes, data has pointed to a sweet spot for growth, inflation and the Fed. But that won’t last forever and there will be bad news for this market, there always is,” they added.

The firm notes that the risks that have quietly grown in the background during the rally are the chances of rate cut disappointment, the growing list of layoffs, commercial real estate, and valuations.

“Bottom line, it’s important to acknowledge that this rally has been driven by actual good news and bullish expectations being reinforced by actual data. At the same time, the risks that kept investors worried in October (and even throughout 2023) haven’t been vanquished—they simply haven’t shown up, yet,” concluded Sevens.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on February 13th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

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Very Lofty Valuations: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

These five market assumptions are ‘aggressively optimistic’ – Sevens Report

Sevens Research said the S&P 500 is starting 2024 trading at “a very lofty” 19.5X valuation. While they don’t believe the valuation is unjustified, they do believe it makes several key, positive assumptions about critical market influences in the coming year.

Sevens argues that while the market assumptions “aren’t necessarily wrong,” the “assumptions are aggressively optimistic, and it is how events unfold versus these expectations and not on an absolute scale that will determine how stocks and bonds trade to start the year.”

Also, click here to view the full Investing.com article published on January 2nd, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Two Differences In 2024 That Could Be Negative For Equity Markets

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2 Differences In 2024: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

Sevens Research sees 2 differences in 2024 that could be negative for equity markets

In its latest daily note, Sevens Report Research said there are two important differences for investors to consider in 2024.

“The market has priced in six Fed rate cuts and year-end 2024 fed funds below 4%,” analysts said.

“If we see the 10-year Treasury yield continue to fall to the low 3% or sub 3% range, that’s not going to be a major tailwind for stocks. Because that won’t be forecasting a dovish Fed, it’ll be forecasting slowing growth,” analysts explained. “And those falling yields will then become a harbinger of a potential economic slowdown and not the welcomed signal of a Fed that’s finally turning dovish.”

The second difference is that earnings results won’t have low expectations to excuse poor performance.

“Consensus S&P 500 earnings growth is nearly 10% year over year. Well above the longer-term averages of around 5%-ish annual growth. And keep in mind, at 4,800 the S&P 500 is trading over 19.5X that $245 earnings estimate, which means there’s little room for disappointment from a valuation perspective,” analysts explained. “Bottom line, ‘ok’ earnings won’t be good enough and we got a preview of that in the Q3 numbers.”

Also, click here to view the full Investing.com article published on December 27th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

 

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Stocks Ended Last Week Higher

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Stocks Ended Last Week Higher: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

‘Last week’s price action is important for 2024,’ says Sevens Report

“Stocks ended last week higher but also saw the biggest drop in several weeks last Wednesday, and the reason for the increased volatility is notable and gives us some hints about what could move markets early in 2024,” the firm wrote.

According to Sevens Report Research, last week’s price action is important for 2024, noting the increased volatility.

“Stocks ended last week higher but also saw the biggest drop in several weeks last Wednesday, and the reason for the increased volatility is notable and gives us some hints about what could move markets early in 2024,” the firm wrote.

“Last Wednesday’s volatility does bring up two issues we need to watch: 1) Earnings disappointment and 2) The total lack of a ‘Wall of Worry,'” they added. While they are not bearish to start 2024 and believe the underlying fundamentals of the market are “still clearly positive.” the firm thinks investors are too complacent with this market as we begin the new year.

Also, click here to view the full Investing.com article published on December 28th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Five Measurable Similarities To 2006/2007

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Five Measurable Similarities To 2006/2007: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

Sevens Report Research sees similarities to 06/07, market susceptible to bouts of sudden volatility

Sevens Report Research said in its morning note on Friday that they see “five measurable similarities to 2006/2007.”

The firm explained that answering the question regarding what lies ahead for the stock market and bond market in 2024 is especially difficult right now, considering “the slew of mixed signals we are facing as we approach the end of 2023.”

“A few of those notable signals include 1) The deepest yield curve inversion since 1981, 2) The highest real interest rates since 2008, 3) Unexpectedly resilient economic data with Real GDP pushing 5% in Q3, 4) Stocks testing all-time highs, and 5) A historically complacent VIX reading,” they stated.

“But these are not unprecedented dynamics, and frankly, they’re reminiscent of the time period spanning 2006 and 2007,” said the firm.

“As long as the market’s fundamental consensus is uncertain and lacks conviction, which remains the case right now, this market will be susceptible to pullbacks and bouts of sudden volatility,” claims the firm.

Also, click here to view the full Investing.com article published on December 22nd, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Markets Have Aggressively Priced In No Recession Or Slowdown

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Markets Have Aggressively Priced In No Recession Or Slowdown: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P 500 weekly preview: Eyeing record highs

“Markets have aggressively priced in no recession or slowdown, but that’s premature. The economy could easily slow and there are some signals slowing growth is happening,” analysts at Sevens Report said.

Sevens Report analysts: “For this rally to continue, we can’t have economic data suddenly start to miss expectations, because now that the Fed has made its dovish pivot, it can’t help markets if worries about an economic slowdown rise. That’s why we’re watching economic data closely at the start of the year.”

Also, click here to view the full Investing.com article published on December 18th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Israeli Operation in Gaza May Help Ease Geopolitical Tensions

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Ease Geopolitical Tensions: Tom Essaye Quoted in Investing.com

From Israel’s Gaza Incursion to Apple’s Launch: Weekly Market Wrap

Economic Conditions and Expert Opinions:

Notably, Tom Essaye from The Sevens Report newsletter noted that the Israeli operation in Gaza might be helping ease geopolitical tensions. 

Despite the positive reaction to the Middle East situation, global equities are still on a trajectory towards their third consecutive monthly decline, attributed to increasing bond yields, a few unexpected tech earnings outcomes, and geopolitical worries.

This week also anticipates numerous key economic events, including interest rate decisions from various central banks, consumer confidence indices, and earnings reports from major corporations like Apple.

Also, click here to view the full Investing.com article published on October 30th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye, Highlights The Significance of The Job Data

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Significance of The Job Data: Tom Essaye Quoted in Investing.com

Wall Street’s Anticipation: Payrolls Data to Influence Fed’s November Decision?

Amid concerns about how upcoming data may impact interest rates, U.S. equities leaned towards a lower close as the S&P 500 fluctuated above a crucial support point. A potential boost in Friday’s monthly non-farm payrolls could lead to increased yields and a further stock decline.

Tom Essaye, highlighted the significance of the job data, suggesting it could greatly influence the S&P 500’s trajectory. 

Also, click here to view the full Investing.com article published on October 5th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com on August 21st, 2023

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Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P 500 weekly preview: All eyes on Nvidia and Powell

Sevens Report analysts: “The market of 2023 is being defined almost by hyperbolic extremes. We started 2023 with investors fearing a catastrophic recession, 1970s- style inflation and 1970s-style rate hikes. That hasn’t happened. But just because that didn’t happen, it doesn’t mean that: No economic slowdown will occur, inflation will magically crash to late 20-teens levels, and the Fed will suddenly turn dovish (as markets priced in at 4,600). The truth is in the middle, and that’s where we are now.”

Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Quoted in Investing.com on July 31st, 2023

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Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P 500 weekly preview: Citi boosts SPX target

Sevens Report: “We and others said at the start of the year that economic data would drive this market in 2023, and that’s what’s happened. The data has been Goldilocks, inflation has fallen, and the Fed isn’t worse than feared. But just like those were positive surprises YTD, they can also turn into negative surprises, as anyone who was in this business in ’99-’00 and ’07-’08 can tell you.” 

Click here to read the full article.