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The fall in gasoline supplied last week suggests a near-term peak in demand

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The fall in gasoline supplied last week suggests a near-term peak in demand: Sevens Report Research Analysts, Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices post back-to-back gains as worries about economic outlook fade

The fall in gasoline supplied last week below the four-week average suggests a near-term peak in demand, analysts at Sevens Report Research said in a note.

Encouragingly, the four-week average did rise by 37,000 barrels a day to 9.07 million barrels a day, so there’s hope that demand could still be a source of fundamental support, they said, though last week wasn’t a step in that direction, based on the data.

Oil rose Wednesday not so much because of the EIA data, but rather because economic data eased worries about recession, added to expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the fall and boosted hopes for a soft economic landing in the U.S., they wrote.

“The stabilization in oil should be considered fragile, however, as the oil market does not like sources of uncertainty like OPEC+ delivered with last weekend’s production policy decision,” the analysts said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on June 6th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

A high-frequency proxy for consumer spending

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A high-frequency proxy for consumer spending: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in MarketWatch

Recession-wary investors are watching gasoline demand for clues to consumer health

“Gasoline demand is being closely watched as a high-frequency proxy for consumer spending,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

“Keeping an eye on the weekly gasoline supplied figure as a proxy for consumer demand for gasoline will be critical, especially relative to its four-week moving average to gauge the underlying trend in fuel demand, and compared with prior year’s levels for the corresponding reporting week,” Richey said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on May 9th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Gasoline demand is being closely watched as a high-frequency proxy

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Gasoline demand is being closely watched: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in MarketWatch

Recession-wary investors are watching gasoline demand for clues to consumer health

“Gasoline demand is being closely watched as a high-frequency proxy for consumer spending,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

In late April, U.S. economic data had been “coming in with a whiff of stagflation and the plunge in consumer demand for fuel amplified those worries,” said Richey.

“Worries that we could see a similar drop off in economic activity amid the onset of the long-discussed post-COVID-stimulus recession were recently reignited by the combination of stagflationary economic data and the high frequency drop off in gasoline demand,” he said.

The nearly 8.8 million bpd “gasoline supplied” figure marked a rebound to top the four-week moving average of 8.53 million bpd, and it was above the 2024 average weekly rate of 8.57 million bpd, according to Richey.

Going forward, “keeping an eye on the weekly gasoline supplied figure as a proxy for consumer demand for gasoline will be critical, especially relative to its four-week moving average to gauge the underlying trend in fuel demand, and compared with prior year’s levels for the corresponding reporting week,” Richey said.

“If we see demand roll over again, expect recession fears to rise and volatility across asset classes pick up, including renewed pressure on oil prices now that the geopolitical fear bid has largely gone stale,” he said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on May 9th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Gasoline supplied, dropped to the lowest level since mid-February

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Gasoline supplied, dropped to the lowest level since mid-February: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices end lower on weak U.S. gasoline demand

The most notable takeaway from the Energy Information Administration report Wednesday was the weekly implied measure of consumer demand for fuel at the pump, gasoline supplied, which dropped to the lowest level since mid-February, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

That indicated a “steady and relatively quick pullback” in domestic fuel consumption in recent weeks,” he told MarketWatch.

U.S. gasoline supplied for the week ended April 19 fell by 239,000 barrels a day to 8.4 million bpd.

And that was “not a ‘one-off’ either, as the 4-week moving average of the often volatile gasoline supplied data fell for a third consecutive week to the lowest reading since the week of March 8th,” said Richey. The EIA data showed the four-week average for gasoline supplied, as of last week, down 3.7 million bpd at 8.7 million bpd.

“Those disappointing implied consumer demand figures paired with the smaller than expected gasoline supply draw on the headline poured some cold water on the market…as worries of a persistently tight physical fuel market are beginning to subside,” said Richey.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on April 24th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Gasoline And Distillate Fuel Supplied Fell Off A Cliff

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Gasoline And Distillate Fuel Supplied Fell Off A Cliff: Tyler Richey Quoted in Morningstar

Oil futures settle lower after ‘massive’ weekly rise in U.S. oil-product inventories

Gasoline and distillate fuel supplied, which is typically viewed as an implied measure of consumer demand, “fell off a cliff.”Tyler Richey, Sevens Report Research

The roughly 20 million-barrel surge in refined product stockpiles was “largely the function of the massive drop off in deliveries around Christmas and New Year’s, which is notably typical in late December and early January,” he said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on January 4th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on August 9th, 2023

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Oil Stocks’ Gains Have Lagged Behind Crude. That’s a Bad Sign for the Shares.

“Consumer gasoline demand has collapsed at a record pace in recent weeks,” wrote Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye, who noted that crude is likely to fall from $83 if demand doesn’t soon stabilize. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in Morningstar on June 29th, 2023

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Oil prices notch back-to-back gains a day after data reveal a hefty drop in U.S. crude supplies

The EIA’s report showed the four-week moving average of gasoline supplied, a proxy for demand, rising to the highest level since November 2021. That strong consumer demand trend is one of the reasons why WTI oil hasn’t dropped to new 2023 lows in recent weeks said Richey. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in Morningstar on June 15th, 2023

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Oil prices climb as traders weigh prospects for energy demand

Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, pointed out that the EIA showed that the four-week moving average of gasoline supplied, a proxy for consumer fuel demand, rose to a new 18-month high of 9.24 million barrels a day. That suggests that the trend in gasoline demand is “one that is increasing, and that is a good thing for the time being,” he said. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Blockworks on January 12th, 2023

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‘They’re Definitely Still Hiking’: Inflation Cooling May Not Deter Fed

A drop in gasoline prices was the largest contributor to the core inflation dip, something that Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report Research, told Blockworks is “a little bit more disappointing than the headline would imply.” Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Seeking Alpha on July 21st, 2022

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Crude oil, energy stocks slide on signs of slowing U.S. fuel demand

Sevens Report Research said gasoline supplied, a measure of implied demand, only bounced by 459K bbl/day to 8.52M bbl/day last week after plunging 1.35M bbl/day in the previous week, which was the largest drop since the initial COVID lockdowns. Click here to read the full article.