One of the worst possible investing environments for stocks and bond holders

This topic of stagflation has gained traction among investors since the hotter-than-expected March CPI report, as it represents “one of the worst possible investing environments for stocks and bond holders,” market commentary Sevens Report said in a recent note.

Comparing this period to the 1970s, when gross domestic product (GDP) growth was flat or negative and CPI exceeded 10%, Powell is correct—”there is no stagflation,” noted analysts from Sevens Report Research.

“However, it’s somewhat dismissive to say that just because things aren’t as bad as they were in the 1970s that any talk of stagflation isn’t warranted,” analysts said.

“Point being, stagflation doesn’t have to be as bad as it was in the 1970s, but for a stock market that’s trading above 21X earnings, the truth is that even a small bout of stagflation could result in a 10%-20% decline in stocks (because a stagflation multiple is somewhere below 18X, or more than 600 S&P 500 points lower from here),” they continued.

“So, with all due respect to Powell and other economists, it is worth taking a look to see if stagflation risks are rising and, if so, what it could mean for stocks.”