Can the Trump Trade Outperform in 2025?

What’s in Today’s Report: Can the Trump Trade Outperform in 2025?

The VIX index and VIX futures both getting pressured in a big way

“Between the post-election unwind in broad stock market hedges and a suffering short-volatility crowd [throughout 2024], the derivatives market pendulum swung hard from one extreme to another with the VIX index and VIX futures both getting pressured in a big way over the last month,” Richey said.

Market indicators and cyclical signals we monitor suggest all the pieces are in place for this bull market to end

“Looking ahead, the collection of market indicators and cyclical signals we monitor suggest all the pieces are in place for this bull market to end in the weeks or months ahead and for a cyclical bear market to begin,” Richey said

The market doesn’t believe Trump will follow through with them

That is certainly the case when it comes to tariffs. So far the market has been largely ignoring their potential impact, as it “simply…doesn’t believe Trump will follow through with them,” to quote Sevens Report President Tom Essaye.

multiple

Market Multiple Table: December Update

What’s in Today’s Report: Market Multiple Table: A New Influence That Could Increase Volatility in 2025

Bullish

Why There’s A Clear Path for the Santa Rally

What’s in Today’s Report: Why There’s A Clear Path for the Santa Rally and Weekly Market Preview: Do inflation metrics make a December rate cut guaranteed?

Jobs Report Preview

Jobs Day

What’s in Today’s Report: Jobs Day and Updated VIX Analysis.