How I Know Scotland Isn’t Leaving the UK

/in /by

Scotland:  The Only Poll We Need to Watch

There are all sorts of conflicting polls regarding whether the Scots will vote “yes” for independence or “no.”  But, I’ve learned over the years that the best way to get a gauge on these types of geo-political events is to follow the money.  InTrade used to be the preferred prediction market to watch, but that got shut down, so now I watch Paddy Power, Irish book makers who make odds on just about anything.

To that end, I went on PaddyPower.com yesterday to check the odds. “Against Independence” was the prohibitive favorite, at 2/7 (so wager 7 to get 2).  “For Independence” was a distant 11/4 (wager 4 to get 11).  Point being, according to the “market,” Scotland isn’t going anywhere.