Sevens Report: December Stock Gains Come From Late-Month Strength

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Seasonality favors the back half of December more than early trading.

This chart suggests Santa rallies typically pick up late in December

A new Sevens Report analysis highlights that December’s strong historical returns in the S&P 500 are overwhelmingly concentrated in the final two weeks of the month—not the first. Citing Ryan Detrick’s 75-year data, December has delivered a 1.4% average gain with a 73% win rate, making it the strongest month of the year.

Sevens noted the front half is usually choppy, and this year is no exception, with the S&P 500 slightly negative through mid-month. The report credits lighter volumes, fund positioning, year-end flows, and anticipation of the Santa Claus rally for late-month strength.

Still, Sevens warned the trend isn’t guaranteed and should be viewed as a helpful tendency—not a certainty.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on December 17th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Sevens Report: Gold Holds Bullish Bias After Less-Hawkish Fed

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Tom Essaye says the Fed decision supports year-end upside, but key levels matter.

Gold: After Post-Fed Boost, Keep These Key Levels in Mind

While not a bullish gamechanger, the net impact of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision will be to support a year-end rally and the reason is clear: The Fed wasn’t as-hawkish-as-feared. On the charts, gold remains rangebound between support at $4,200 per ounce and resistance at $4,400, observes Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.

Commodities were mixed for most of the day Wednesday as traders awaited the conclusion of the Fed meeting. However, the less-hawkish cut the FOMC delivered sparked risk-on money flows in afternoon trade that saw economically sensitive industrial metals and energy futures outperform. Gold turned positive but lagged on the session.

Still, it lurched higher in after-hours trade to up 0.48% in part because the Fed announced a 30-day bond buying spree totaling $40 billion. Risks are still skewed to the upside in the direction of the dominant, primary uptrend that’s been in place all year.

Technical View: Gold market volatility has picked up in Q4 with risks of intermittent, deeper pullbacks elevated. However, the long-term trend remains bullish.

  • Primary Trend: Bullish (since the week of Nov. 27, 2023)
  • Key Resistance Levels: $4,290…$4,344…and $4,398
  • Key Support Levels: $4,134…$4,045…and $3,941.

Also, click here to view the full article on Moneyshow.com published on December 12th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Sevens Report’s Tyler Richey Says Venezuela Tanker Seizure Won’t Spike Oil Prices

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Tyler Richey sees geopolitical risk rising, but limited impact unless exports are disrupted.

U.S. seizes oil tanker off Venezuela. Why one analyst says it’s ‘a smart move.’

Tyler Richey, co-editor of Sevens Report Research, said in an email Wednesday that disruptions to Venezuelan oil “would add another factor to the already present geopolitical fear” that has rattled the oil futures market for more than a year.

“The wild card to watch is whether or not Guyana’s oil production growth is impacted due to disputes over offshore oil resources” with Venezuela, Richey said. However, “barring a material impact on Venezuelan oil exports or Guyana oil production growth expectations, the price impact on oil should be limited.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on December 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Hassett Fed Talk Adds Fuel to Dovish Market Expectations

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Sevens Report says stocks are rising on Fed-cut hopes — but warns bond markets see real risks.

Why Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair isn’t automatically bullish

Stocks have extended a two-week rally as expectations for a December Fed rate cut have surged from under 50% to nearly 100%. According to the Sevens Report, that shift began with dovish commentary from New York Fed President John Williams and a run of softer labor and inflation data.

But the firm highlighted a second catalyst behind the market’s bullish rate bets: President Trump’s near-confirmation that he intends to nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve chair. Among the finalists, Hassett is viewed as the most dovish, leading investors to anticipate a more accommodative policy stance once he takes over in mid-2026.

Still, Sevens cautioned that a highly dovish chair is not an automatic positive. While stocks cheered the development, bond markets reacted in the opposite direction. The 10-year yield rose 10 basis points last week, reflecting concerns that an overly soft approach could revive inflation — echoing the stop-and-go policy mistakes of the 1970s under Arthur Burns.

Sevens emphasized that Hassett has not shown any inclination to jeopardize Fed independence, but warned that even the perception of political pressure could push Treasury markets lower and yields higher. The firm noted that maintaining the Fed’s independence is “far more important for supporting equities” than whether end-2026 policy rates land at 3.625% or 2.875%.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on December 5th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Sevens Report Flags Bond Market Unease Over Possible Hassett Fed Pick

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Stocks welcome dovish signals, but fixed-income markets are growing cautious.

Why Kevin Hassett’s appointment to the Fed chair isn’t automatically bullish for bonds

The Sevens Report highlights that falling rate expectations are being driven by more than just incoming data. Tom Essaye points to speculation around Kevin Hassett emerging as a leading candidate for Fed chair as a key influence behind recent market behavior.

While equities have reacted favorably to the prospect of a more dovish Fed, the bond market has responded far more defensively. Essaye notes that fixed-income investors are uneasy about the risk that an aggressively dovish chair could undermine the Fed’s credibility, potentially allowing inflation pressures to re-emerge.

That concern appears to be showing up in yields, which backed up after briefly dipping below 4%. Although Essaye stresses there is no evidence that Hassett would compromise Fed independence, uncertainty alone has been enough to inject caution into bond markets.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on November 4th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Tom Essaye: Bitcoin’s Drop Shows Its High-Risk Nature

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Tom Essaye: Bitcoin’s Drop Shows Its High-Risk Nature

Bitcoin price today: BTC bounces back to $88,500 after sharp dip below $84,000

Bitcoin’s latest slide caught investors off guard, occurring just days after the cryptocurrency briefly rebounded from the $80,000 level. The move largely reflected profit-taking, thin liquidity, and broader macro uncertainty that weighed on risk assets.

“Bitcoin remains a hyper-volatile, speculative asset. It still moves in sync with risk appetite. When markets tighten, Bitcoin falls harder,” said Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article on Businessupturn.com published on December 2nd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Tom Essaye: Markets Seek Dovish Signals Ahead of Fed Decision

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Tom Essaye: Markets Seek Dovish Signals Ahead of Fed Decision

Stocks Gain as Bitcoin Rebounds; Boeing Soars on FCF Forecast

Stocks moved higher Tuesday as bitcoin’s rebound helped lift broader risk sentiment and Boeing shares surged on improved free-cash-flow projections. Traders are also preparing for next week’s Fed decision and weighing the potential for a dovish shift under a new chair.

“Markets are looking for dovish signals via strong demand for short-duration Treasuries and fresh support for a December Fed rate cut,” wrote Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report, referencing Tuesday’s six-week bill auction.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Bloomberg on December 2nd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Tom Essaye Interviewed on Yahoo Finance: How Prediction Markets Could Shift Crypto Trading

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Coinbase: What will a prediction market bring to the table?

Coinbase: What will a prediction market bring to the table?

Coinbase Global (COIN) is under the microscope today as Yahoo Finance executive editor Brian Sozzi examines the crypto exchange — which has experienced a stock hit from bitcoin’s (BTC-USD) extended sell-off — as it looks to unveil two new products: a predictions market and tokenized equity trades.

Sevens Report Research Founder Tom Essaye and Yahoo Finance senior reporters Brooke DiPalma and Ines Ferré examine the recent rise in prediction markets, including Polymarket and Kalshi.

Also, click here to view the full interview on Yahoo Finance published on December 2nd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Tom Essaye Interviewed: Why a Drop Below $80K Could Trigger a Bigger Collapse for Bitcoin

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Crypto: A ‘trap door’ will open up if bitcoin falls below $80K

Crypto: A ‘trap door’ will open up if bitcoin falls below $80K

Sevens Report Research Founder Tom Essaye and Yahoo Finance senior reporters Brooke DiPalma and Ines Ferré weigh in on the state of the crypto space, coming as Bank of America is recommending that its wealth management clients should allocate 4% of their portfolios into crypto.

Also, click here to view the full interview on Yahoo Finance published on December 2nd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Tom Essaye Flags Major Bitcoin Breakdown as Long-Term Holders Exit

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Why crypto’s having a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad month

Bitcoin’s latest slide may be signaling more trouble ahead, with several key technical and behavioral indicators turning sharply negative, according to Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research.

Essaye said one of the earliest warning signs emerged in October, when Bitcoin’s powerful rally wasn’t confirmed by momentum indicators. “As Bitcoin pushed higher, the relative strength index failed to rise with it, and that divergence continued to point to further downside,” he noted.

The more decisive signal came this week when Bitcoin broke below critical support at $106,000, a level closely watched by both institutional and retail investors. The breakdown unleashed a wave of selling that Essaye described as unusually intense.

“This wasn’t driven by short-term traders — this was long-term investors exiting the market,” he said. The surge in selling volume reflects that shift: Bitcoin’s latest 4.4% decline occurred on some of the highest turnover of the second half of 2025, a trend Essaye warns has persisted across multiple down days.

The combination of momentum deterioration, major support failure, and heavy long-term holder distribution suggests that pressure may continue to build if prices fall further.

Also, click here to view the full article published in USAToday.com on November 21st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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