Fed Decision Takeaways

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Decision Means for Markets
  • FOMC Decision Takeaways
  • Oil Update – Resilient Demand Offset By Fed Policy Worries

U.S. equity futures are lower as the Fed decision continues to be digested while global economic data largely missed expectations overnight.

Economically, Chinese data was universally disappointing with Industrial Production and Retail Sales both missing estimates while EU trade data showed that imports and exports both declined by more than anticipated. China’s central bank cut rates further overnight, however, which saw risk assets in Asia recover to end with gains.

Looking into today’s session, the ECB decision will be in focus this morning (E: +25bp hike) followed by President Lagarde’s press conference. If the ECB is seen as hawkish, it will likely weigh on stocks and other risk assets as it will show central bankers are not yet satisfied with the trends in inflation and more aggressive policy is likely in the months ahead.

In the U.S., there is a slew of economic data due to be released including: Jobless Claims (E: 250K), Retail Sales (E: 0.0%), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (E: -13.2), Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: -15.1), Import & Export Prices (E: -0.6%, -0.5%), and Industrial Production (E: 0.1%).

And with the Fed leaving future policy plans largely “open” and dependent on economic data, the market will want to see more “Goldilocks” trends with slowing growth and a more rapid decline in price readings.

 

Sevens Report Alpha: Artificial Intelligence Issue

This week’s Alpha issue focused on a very popular market topic:  Artificial Intelligence.

This issue was an update to a March 7th Alpha issue on AI, and the three ETFs we profiled in that report have risen 20%, 17%, and 14%, respectively in just three months! 

This week’s AI issue updated and expanded that research as we:

  • Reviewed and updated the research on our previous AI ETF picks.
  • Introduced two new AI-focused ETFs that are both up more than 30% YTD.
  • Included a proprietary spreadsheet of 30 AI stocks and categorized them by: Sector, Market Cap, Price/Earnings ratio, Price/Sales ratio, Revenue, and Performance.

If you’d like to start a risk-free trial subscription to Sevens Report Alpha and access the latest AI issue, and all previous Alpha issues and webinars since 2017, please email info@sevensreport.com.

We do ask that you pay the $330 quarterly subscription fee, but there is a 30 day money back guarantee, so you risk nothing to try the product.  

To learn more about Sevens Report Alpha, click this link. 

Tom Essaye Quoted in Big News Network on May 24th, 2023

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On a similar note, Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye said that “from a technical perspective, there are signs that a potential bottom for the dollar has been formed.” Click here to ad the full article.

Tom Essaye Interviewed on BNN Bloomberg on April 25th, 2023

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These earnings aren’t enough to push markets materially higher: Sevens Report Research’s president

Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report Research, joins BNN Bloomberg to run through his take on prominent companies reporting earnings this week. Click here to watch the full interview.

What the New Low in FRC Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the New Low in FRC Means for Markets
  • Chart Update:  Possible Head and Shoulders
  • The Most Consistent Market Indicator Right Now (It’s in Bonds)

Futures are modestly higher thanks to more solid tech earnings overnight and some small political progress.

Meta (FB) joined MSFT and GOOGL in posting strong earnings and the stock was up more than 10% overnight.

Politically, House Republicans (barely) passed their debt ceiling bill and now more substantial negotiations can begin with the White House.

Today focus will remain on data and earnings.  Economically, the key report today is Jobless Claims (E: 249K), although the financial media will focus more on Q1 GDP (E: 2.0%).  But, Q1 GDP is a stale number at this point (it covers Jan-Mar) compared to jobless claims, which will tell us if we’re seeing more deterioration in the labor market.  Any move towards, or modestly above, 250k would further hint at labor market deterioration (which would be a mild positive for markets).

Turning to earnings, this remains the busiest week for results and key reports we’re watching today include:  AMZN (E: $0.21), INTC ($0.16), CAT ($3.79), AAL ($0.04), MA ($2.71), MRK ($1.34) and MO ($1.19).

Tom Essaye Quoted in Blockworks on April 20th, 2023

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Bitcoin, Ether Hover Below Key Levels While Volatility Dips

“The VIX is trading at the lowest levels since the S&P 500 hit its standing all-time high in the early days of 2022,” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said. “It will be hard to believe the market is poised to casually cruise towards new record highs from here,” he added. “I.e., the bottom of the bear market is not in.” Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Joined BNN Bloomberg To Discuss The Markets on April 13th, 2023

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If the U.S. Fed doesn’t make good on rate cut expectations, the market rally will be undone: Analyst

Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report Research, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss the disparity of the market’s rate cut expectations, and central bank pushback. Click here to watch the full interview.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes on April 7th, 2023

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Labor Market Adds 236,000 Jobs In March—Lowest Since 2020—As Economists Worry Recession May Be ‘Underway Now’

The revisions fueled recession concerns that intensified this week, with “every major data point”—including jobless claims, manufacturing activity and construction spending—signaling the economy is slowing down and pushing some experts to worry it may be slowing down too quickly, says Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in BNN Bloomberg on April 6th, 2023

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U.S. stocks rise amid hopes for ‘just right’ jobs print

As investors have aggressively priced in rate cuts this year, a “too hot” payrolls number would undermine those expectations, while a “too cold” report would add to concerns about a hard landing, according to Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded The Sevens Report newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
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Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes on April 3rd, 2023

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Surprise Oil Production Cuts Risk ‘Exacerbating’ Inflation Pressures And Harsher Fed Policy, Experts Warn

The surprise announcement also suggests OPEC+ may be getting more cautious about its outlook for global oil demand given the elevated threat of a potentially deep recession looming, says Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes on March 30th, 2023

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Dow Jumps 200 Points As Lack Of ‘Drama’ Spurs Gains

“To say a lot has transpired in the markets over the past three weeks would be an understatement,” Sevens Report analyst Tom Essaye wrote in a Thursday note to clients. Click here to read the full article.