Worried About an AI Bubble? Watch This Indicator

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Tom Essaye says chip stocks may be the canary in the coal mine

Stocks Are Hitting New Highs and Investors Don’t Believe It

While artificial intelligence remains the dominant market narrative, Sevens Report President Tom Essaye warns that investors should be cautious about hype outpacing reality.

“Every bubble in modern market history has been based on a narrative,” Essaye wrote, comparing today’s AI surge to past booms like the dot-com and housing bubbles. He suggests that the best early warning signs may come from semiconductor stocks—especially the broader Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX).

Nvidia may be hitting record highs, but Essaye cautions that focusing solely on NVDA could be misleading. “That divergence in index performance is meaningful,” he said. If SOX begins to materially sell off, he warns, “the S&P 500 will almost certainly not be far behind.”

Although he stops short of calling the top, Essaye believes equity markets are underpricing the risks. “There is a significant sense of complacency in equity markets right now,” he wrote, urging investors to stay alert in the second half of 2025.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Barron’s published on August 1st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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AI Euphoria Driving Market Bubble? Sevens Report Co-Editor Warns

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Tyler Richey compares tech rally to Looney Tunes—gravity may come next

US stocks soar to new highs as fears of bubble bursting rise

As U.S. stocks soar to record highs, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, warns the market may be approaching a bursting point.

“Every market bubble in modern history has had a narrative,” said Richey. “In 2000, it was the internet. In 2008, real estate. In 2025, it’s AI.” With NVIDIA’s market cap jumping $1.933 trillion since April, Richey likens the chip sector’s run to the Road Runner, while the S&P 500 plays Wile E. Coyote—suspended in midair, just before the fall.

He pointed to:

  • Multidecade extremes in relative strength

  • Technical imbalances across sectors

  • Bearish sentiment divergence despite index highs

“A downward force that the broader stock market could very well be on the brink of facing itself,” Richey warned.

Also, click here to view the full article published in S&P Global on July 31st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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How stock-market investors should trade what could be a historic Fed dissent on Wednesday

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Dissents unlikely to signal policy shift amid speculation over Fed succession

How stock-market investors should trade what could be a historic Fed dissent on Wednesday

Under normal circumstances, dissents for a rate cut would signal a dovish shift. But current dynamics make that unlikely to move markets, said Tom Essaye, editor of Sevens Report Research.

“Don’t believe any reporting that implies the dissents are a dovish surprise or make a September rate cut more likely,” Essaye wrote Tuesday. “It won’t be a surprise and they won’t make a September cut more likely.”

Essaye notes that any dissents from Waller or Bowman would be seen as political positioning, not monetary policy pivots—particularly as both are viewed as potential successors to Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on July 29th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Sevens Report Co-Editor Says $750B EU Energy Deal Carries Financial Asterisk

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Tyler Richey, Co-Editor, Sevens Report Research Quoted by MarketWatch.

The Energy Report: They Said It Couldn’t Be Done

“If there are plans to more rapidly expand Europe’s nuclear power capacity by utilizing U.S.-based companies, and the power-plant construction, operation, long-term fuel fulfillment contracts, and future reactor services (some of which can be decades long) are all included in that $750 [billion] ‘headline number,’ then there could be a case made that the pulled-forward dollar amount of future operations could boost the value of the deal,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

However, that scenario would require some “financial engineering” to achieve the $750 billion, which would “leave the realistic dollar amount of the deal carrying an asterisk based on the three-year timeline mentioned,” Richey told MarketWatch.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on July 29th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Four Risks That Could Disrupt S&P 500 Rally, Says Sevens Report

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Tariffs, surprises, and complacency are among the threats to market momentum

These four threats could ’upset’ bullish S&P 500 momentum: Sevens Report

Markets continue to push toward all-time highs, but the Sevens Report warns that optimism shouldn’t overshadow real risks. In a note Monday, the team outlined four potential threats that could upend the bull run:

  1. Higher-than-expected tariffs on Aug. 1, which could shake the TACO (Tariffs Are Coming Off) narrative.

  2. Market complacency, driven by the false belief that “if it hasn’t happened, it won’t.”

  3. Other unspecified surprises that could inject volatility.

  4. Broader macroeconomic or geopolitical shifts that are underpriced.

“While there’s undeniably a positive setup for stocks, I believe it’s always important to look at the other side of the trade,” the report said.

“We will remain vigilant to what could go wrong so we’re not blindsided by volatility and don’t give back these strong gains.”

Also, click here to view the full Investing.com article featured on Yahoo Finance published on July 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Sevens Report Co-Editor Questions Validity of $750B US-EU Energy Deal

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Tyler Richey says headline figure may rely on “financial engineering”

The E.U. to buy $750 billion of U.S. energy products. Why that’s ‘absurd.’

The European Union’s plan to buy $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products raised eyebrows this week, with Sevens Report Research co-editor Tyler Richey calling the figure “absurd” without major assumptions baked in.

“If there are plans to more rapidly expand Europe’s nuclear power capacity by utilizing U.S.-based companies… then there could be a case made,” Richey told MarketWatch.

But that would require “financial engineering,” he added, and the three-year timeline would likely leave the real value of the deal carrying an asterisk.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on July 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Markets Relieved as Powell Expected to Finish Fed Term

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Stability in Fed leadership reassures investors amid earnings season

S&P 500, Nasdaq end with record highs again. Dow jumps, too.

Markets showed signs of relief Friday as expectations solidified that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will finish his term, despite speculation around his potential replacement.

“Markets still fully expect Powell to finish his term,”
said Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research.

With investor attention split between corporate earnings—highlighted by Intel’s results—and central bank leadership, Powell’s expected continuity is seen as a stabilizing force amid global uncertainty.

Also, click here to view the full article published in USAToday.com on July 25th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Stock Rally Builds on Optimism for U.S.-EU Trade Breakthrough

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Sevens Report sees momentum from Japan deal

Stock Rally Builds on Hopes for US-EU Trade Deal: Markets Wrap

U.S. stocks extended gains as investors grew hopeful about a potential U.S.-EU trade deal following a successful agreement with Japan.

“Focus will stay on trade and earnings,” said Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report.
“The Japan deal raises hopes a similar EU deal can be struck before next Friday.”

Markets continue to ride positive sentiment around trade progress and corporate earnings.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Bloomberg on July 22nd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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S&P 500 Posts Weekly Gain as Markets Eye Trade, Earnings

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Sevens Report highlights focus on Japan deal and earnings outlook

US Stocks End Little Changed With S&P 500 Notching Weekly Gain

MARKET STAYS FLAT — BUT GAINS HOLD

U.S. stocks ended little changed Friday, with the S&P 500 securing a weekly gain as traders look ahead to trade negotiations and earnings.

Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report notes:

“Focus will stay on trade and earnings. The Japan deal will raise hopes a similar deal with the EU can be stuck before next Friday.”

Despite geopolitical noise and inflation concerns earlier in the week, markets have stayed resilient — for now.

Next catalysts: corporate earnings season and potential EU trade developments.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Bloomberg on July 18th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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S&P 500 Logs Weekly Gain as Resilient Spending Supports Rally

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Sevens Report points to tariffs and solid consumer demand

A Steady Rise in U.S. Stocks Leads to the S&P 500 Weekly Gains

U.S. stocks ticked higher Friday, helping the S&P 500 post another weekly gain as investors digested earnings, Fed commentary, and tariff effects.

Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report noted:

“Some weakness is appearing in import-sensitive industries, possibly tied to tariffs, but overall consumer spending remains solid.”

That consumer strength is fueling the soft-landing narrative, keeping U.S. equities near all-time highs in 2025.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Tradealgo.com on July 18th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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