Weak ADP Data Not a Red Flag Yet, Says Tom Essaye

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Essaye highlights resilience in labor market and favors natural resources ETF

Weak Jobs Numbers Won’t Derail a Hot Economy. 3 ETFs to Buy.

The latest ADP National Employment Report showed a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, but Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye said the data shouldn’t alarm investors. He noted that Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) figures—typically more reliable—still indicate modest job growth.

“Unemployment remains low,” Essaye said, adding that it would take convincingly poor readings across multiple data sources to pose a serious threat to the economic outlook. “That’s not close to happening right now,” he emphasized.

Looking for opportunities in the current environment, Essaye recommended the FlexShares Global Upstream Natural Resources Index Fund (GUNR), citing its exposure to oil producers, chemical manufacturers, and basic materials companies. He said these firms could see rising profits as demand for commodities strengthens alongside steady consumer and business spending.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Barron’s published on October 1st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Tom Essaye: Spending Deal Progress Could Lift Markets

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Political gridlock risks adding pressure to equities

As the Government Shutdown Begin, Stocks Drop

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report, added that any sign of progress toward a spending deal could spark a relief rally. Conversely, rising political friction that drags out the stalemate would likely trigger more downside pressure on risk assets.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Tradealgo.com on October 1st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Tom Essaye: Spending Deal Could Spark Relief Rally

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Shutdown tensions risk further losses in equities

Stocks Gain on Rate-Cut Bets; Drug Shares Extend Gains

To Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report, any signs of progress toward some sort of spending agreement in Congress would likely spark a relief rally, while rising political tensions that prolong the shutdown would likely prompt further losses in risk assets.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Bloomberg on October 1st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Tom Essaye Interviewed on Yahoo Finance as the Government Shutdown Looms

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Gov’t shutdown could mean no clean jobs data until December

The US government is expected to shut down if Congress cannot reach a deal by Sept. 30. Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye said it’s not the shutdown itself that poses a threat to markets, but the disruption to economic data.

Also, click here to view the full video on Yahoo Finance published on September 29th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Tom Essaye Interviewed on Yahoo Finance as Gold hits $3.8K

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Gold hits $3.8K, but investors should ‘wait’: Here’s why

Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Ines Ferré outlines the details of the commodity’s rise, and Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye examines the precious metal from an investment perspective.

Also, click here to view the full video on Yahoo Finance published on September 29th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Tom Essaye: AI Stocks Create Major Risk for S&P 500

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Valuation gap suggests index could fall 20% to align with the market

S&P 500 Heavily Reliant on AI Stocks

The S&P 500’s heavy reliance on AI-linked mega-cap tech stocks is creating a significant risk for investors, said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research and former Merrill Lynch trader.

Essaye pointed to a valuation gap of nearly five full points between the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP). To trade in line with the equal-weight index, the S&P 500 would need to decline by almost 1,500 points, he noted.

The disparity is being driven by the “magnificent seven” and AI-related names. Essaye warned that if enthusiasm for AI weakens—whether from reduced capex or slower adoption—the S&P 500 could drop more than 20% before valuations align.

He stressed that he is not predicting such a downturn but said the correlation between AI sentiment and the S&P 500 is “too strong to ignore.”

Also, click here to view the full article on finnewsnetwork.com.au published on September 25th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Sevens Report: Q1 Stock Rally Shows Classic Dow Theory ‘Bull Trap’

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Transports’ weakness undermines Industrials’ record highs

Decoding Modern Bull Traps: A Dow Theory Perspective on Market Sentiment and False Signals

The Sevens Report said the Dow’s record-setting first-quarter rally fits the mold of a classic “bull trap” under Dow Theory. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged to new highs, the Dow Jones Transportation Average remained negative year-to-date—a divergence Charles Dow viewed as a warning of waning economic momentum.

The lack of confirmation from transports, which track logistics and shipping demand, suggests that market optimism may be misplaced. Sevens cautioned that without both averages advancing in tandem, the rally risks unraveling.

Also, click here to view the full article on Ainvest.com published on September 19th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Sevens Report Flags ‘Bull Trap’ in Stocks Under Dow Theory

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Transports’ weakness signals risk despite record highs

Charles Dow would describe this market as a ’bull trap’ says this analyst

The Sevens Report warned Friday that the U.S. stock rally fits the definition of a “bull trap” under Dow Theory. While the Dow Industrials have hit new highs, the Dow Transports remain negative year-to-date, flashing a bearish divergence.

The note cited two key principles: Confirmation and Trend Reversals. Both indexes must rise together to confirm expansion, but transports’ weakness suggests pressure in travel, logistics, and freight.

Sevens emphasized that despite four of five major equity benchmarks hitting records, Dow Theory would still label the advance a technical bull trap.

Also, click here to view the full investing.com article on Yahoo Finance published on September 19th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Sevens Report’s Tyler Richey Quoted in AInvest.com

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Dow Theory’s warning sign continues to flash

FedEx Earnings to Provide Clues on Stock Market Rally’s Fate

While the Dow Theory’s warning sign continues to flash, some strategists argue that it has little merit in the digital age, missing out on the significant role of vertically integrated retailers like Amazon and Walmart that handle their own shipping and delivery. Nevertheless, the Sevens Report’s Tyler Richey suggests that the Dow Theory should be used in conjunction with other indicators to get a full picture of the economy.

Also, click here to view the full article on Ainvest.com published on September 18th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Sevens Report Weighs on AI Trade as Alphabet Hits $3 Trillion Milestone

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Essaye flags next Big Tech contender for record valuation

Google hits $3T market cap. This Big Tech name could be next.

Sevens Report Research Founder Tom Essaye joins Opening Bid to discuss the Google parent company’s recent gains and what it signals about the artificial intelligence (AI) trade. He also shares another Big Tech name that he thinks could be the next to hit $3 trillion.

Also, click here to view the full video on Yahoo Finance published on September 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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