“The outlook for China has been steadily improving for the past two months, and this MSCI announcement is another tailwind. Clearly this isn’t a risk-free trade and a lot can still…”
Click here to read the article.
Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla., said President Trump’s Twitter post last week saying oil prices were “getting too high,” and telling OPEC not to reduce production too much, will continue to work as a bearish counterweight to OPEC. “Trump’s tweet targeting OPEC+ policies from last week is still simmering…” Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are drifting slightly lower following a quiet night as markets await the ECB decision later this morning.
Economic data generally met expectations overnight as Euro Zone Q4 GDP was 1.1% vs. (E) 1.2% while Chinese FX reserves were in line at $3.09T.
Today the key event will be the ECB Decision at 7:45 a.m. ET and then the ECB Press Conference at 8:30 a.m. ET. For this to meet dovish expectations (and not be a disappointment for stocks) we’ll need to see 1) An extension of the promise not to raise rates until 2020 and 2) A strong hint more TLTROs are coming. This decision will have direct impacts on Treasuries and stocks (more inside the report).
Away from the ECB we also get Jobless Claims (E: 223K) and Q4 Productivity and Costs (E: 1.6%, 1.8%) plus there’s one Fed speaker: Brainard (12:15 p.m. ET).
“On a valuation basis this market has risen to reflect a macro environment that is materially more positive than the one we currently have, and as a fundamentals-driven analyst, that makes me nervous over…” says Tom Essaye. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are modestly lower this morning after another mostly quiet night of news as investors look ahead to the remaining catalysts this week including US jobs data.
The only economic report overnight was Australian GDP which missed expectations (0.2% vs. E: 0.3%) and hit the Aussie dollar (-0.76%).
Oil prices are down over 1% this morning after the API reported a weekly build of +7.3M bbls late yesterday vs. (E) +1.6M bbls. A build of this size would largely offset last week’s bullish draw and could pressure the energy space (and drag risk assets lower too) if confirmed by this morning’s EIA report (10:30 a.m. ET).
Today, we get our first look at February jobs data with the ADP Employment Report (E: 180K) due out ahead of the bell. Then, International Trade figures will be released shortly thereafter (E: -$57.6B). Either release could move markets as growth concerns and the trade war remain two of the biggest influences on stocks right now.
Other than the weekly EIA report mid-morning, there are two Fed officials scheduled to speak over the lunch hour: Mester (12:00 p.m. ET) and Williams (E: 12:10 p.m. ET).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are up modestly while international markets were mixed in quiet trade overnight as investors eyed the benign start of China’s NPC where 2019 forecasts largely met expectations while economic data was mixed.
China’s General Services PMI fell from 53.6 to 51.1 in February while Composite PMI data in Europe was better than expected which is helping EU shares outperform this morning.
Today, there are two Fed officials speaking early: Rosengren (7:30 a.m. ET) and Kashkari (9:30 a.m. ET), before a few notable economic reports are due to be released shortly after the bell: New Home Sales (E: 590K) and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (E: 57.2). Beyond those potential catalysts, focus will remain on U.S. – China trade.
Tom interviewed with The Ticker’s Jackie DeAngelis on Yahoo Finance to discuss the 7 ‘ifs’ that would have to happen for markets to…Click here to watch the entire clip or click on the video below.
Tom Essaye was quoted in Axios to share his take on U.S./China trade deal, the big picture and more. Read the full article here.
“Markets expect a deal by the end of March, but the key here will be whether the deal results in the removal of all tariffs,” said Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report. Click here to read the article.
