Entries by Tom 2

The Economy: A Look Back and What’s Ahead (3.17.14)

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Last Week

The domestic economic calendar was very sparse last week, as most of the market’s focus was on Chinese data.

Starting with the U.S., though, the two U.S. reports last week were retail sales and weekly jobless claims.  Both slightly beat estimates (retail sales rose 0.3% vs. 0.2% and weekly jobless claims were 315K vs. 330K), but neither report really changes anyone’s outlook for the economy or Fed policy.

The most “important” economic data last week came from China, as the country reported its trade balance, retail sales, fixed-asset investment and industrial production last Thursday. All of the report missed estimates, raising concerns that the Chinese economy is seeing growth further slow (multiple firms reduced their Chinese GDP forecasts to between 7.0% and 7.5%).

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The Economy: A Look Back and What’s Ahead (3.10.14)

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Economic data last week broadly met or exceeded expectations, and 1) Solidified that the global economic recovery is ongoing, 2)Strongly implied the economic weakness in the U.S. in Dec/Jan is temporary, and 3)Ensured the Fed will continue to taper the QE program by another $10 billion at the March meeting a week from Wednesday.