Entries by Tom 2

How I Know Scotland Isn’t Leaving the UK

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Scotland:  The Only Poll We Need to Watch There are all sorts of conflicting polls regarding whether the Scots will vote “yes” for independence or “no.”  But, I’ve learned over the years that the best way to get a gauge on these types of geo-political events is to follow the money.  InTrade used to be […]

The Fed’s Perception Problem (and why it’s Hawkish)

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The Fed’s Perception Problem (and why it’s Hawkish) If the FOMC does indeed become incrementally more “hawkish” today, it’ll likely be because of the growing fear among Fed officials that the market views the Fed as simply being too “dovish.” We’ve heard several Fed presidents reference this, and last week there was a San Francisco […]

Why the Market Thinks the Fed Is Going to Be “Hawkish”

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Why The Market Thinks the Fed Is Going to Be “Hawkish” The No. 1 reason the market has priced more hawkishness into this statement is because it’s expected that the final paragraph in the statement will be altered, and the term “considerable time” will be removed from the following paragraph. “To support continued progress toward […]

Weekly Economic Cheat-Sheet

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Last Week There were just two notable U.S. economic releases last week. Although neither was enough to force a change in the outlook for Fed policy, August retail sales were strong and incrementally viewed as increasing the chances for a hawkish statement change this week.  Outside of that, the most important thing that happened last […]