“Between the post-election unwind in broad stock market hedges and a suffering short-volatility crowd [throughout 2024], the derivatives market pendulum swung hard from one extreme to another with the VIX index and VIX futures both getting pressured in a big way over the last month,” Richey said.
“Looking ahead, the collection of market indicators and cyclical signals we monitor suggest all the pieces are in place for this bull market to end in the weeks or months ahead and for a cyclical bear market to begin,” Richey said
That is certainly the case when it comes to tariffs. So far the market has been largely ignoring their potential impact, as it “simply…doesn’t believe Trump will follow through with them,” to quote Sevens Report President Tom Essaye.
Tom Essaye, founder and president of the Sevens Report, says the bullish thesis for stocks is stronger now because all of the tests set up two weeks ago were passed.
“Given yesterday’s strong rally, I’d expect some digestion of the move or a mild drift higher,” Essaye said.
Equities surged as “a Republican sweep is the likely election outcome,” Tom Essaye, the founder and president of Sevens Report Research, said
It’s been a stellar year so far for U.S. markets. Investors should expect the surge to carry on…Sevens Report Research founder and president Tom Essaye said on Wednesday.
Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said it wasn’t just Big Tech weighing on equities Thursday. Earnings across the board were disappointing…
It also means that the biggest risk for the market would be if the data come in strong anyway. Signs of a still-resilient labor market could pressure the Federal Reserve to leave its policy interest-rate target on hold next week, Essaye added.
Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said the report “was not enough to derail the soft landing thesis by itself, but it was a step in that direction as…