The headline CPI number, released Thursday, was shockingly bad, -0.7% vs. (E) for -0.6% in January—but that was all because of gas prices, and hence it was largely ignored. It was the core CPI figure (CPI less the volatile food and energy component) that was stronger than expected at +0.2% vs. estimates for +0.1%, which[…]
Rig count reductions are the big reason cited by many oil analysts for a supposed coming contraction in oil supply. Yet over the past two days earnings from two energy companies offered anecdotal insight into why I am skeptical of the theory that rig count reductions will ease the growing oil supply glut. On Tuesday,[…]
On Tuesday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony the House were characteristically non-committal about the initial “lift off” date for what most agree is the eventual first hike in interest rates in years. Clearly, Fed Chair Yellen’s Humphrey-Hawkins comments were taken as “dovish” by the market, as both stocks and bonds rallied shortly after the[…]
The market was focused on Greece last week, and because of that traders basically ignored the more-than-3% weekly decline in oil prices (the biggest decline in nearly a month). Yet, as we originally pointed out in late November/early December, oil prices and the Dollar Index remain the near-term drivers of stocks, and it’s no coincidence[…]
I hope stocks go up forever, and that we all get rich. Yet I’m also hoping for world peace, a cure for cancer and temperatures in the 70s for the rest of the year. Obviously, I think there’s a slightly better chance of the stock market rally continuing for at least a little while longer[…]
A subscriber to The 7:00’s Report wrote in the other day asking me about my stance on the risk/reward picture for buying stocks right now. I know this gentleman, and he is very smart. I also respect his opinion on the financial markets. Here’s what he wrote to me this week regarding buying stocks at[…]
As was the case with most of the financial markets Wednesday, commodities’ traders were largely focused on the release of the FOMC minutes. The general reading on the back and forth inside the Fed was rather “dovish,” primarily because FOMC officials seemed particularly focused on wanting to make sure the economic recovery was truly “sticking”[…]
In Tuesday’s Stock Market Today post, we broadly covered that the FOMC minutes released today will be examined for signs of when the Fed may first hike interest rates. To that end, the hawks will be looking for extensive mention of the term “patient,” while the doves will be looking for a discussion regarding, “NAIRU.”[…]
Traders are back from the President’s Day holiday and ready to begin the business of moving the stock market today. Now that the S&P 500 Index is at all-time highs, the direction of the stock market today, and for the rest of the week, will likely be an important harbinger of things to come for[…]
As we mentioned in Thursday’s Stock Market Today post, the primary overhang in the financial markets today is the still-unknown status of the Greek debt deal with the EU. In fact, the outcome of a Greek deal, along with the noise yesterday regarding a potential ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine, largely overshadowed what is[…]