The Economy: A Look Back and What’s Ahead
/in Investing/by Tom 2Economic data last week was largely supportive of the current market trends (improvement in global economic growth & tapering of QE in the U.S. to begin this fall). But the one glaring exception was Friday’s new home sales report, which implies higher mortgage rates are indeed acting as a headwind on the housing recovery.
Is This Decline a Buying Opportunity? Here’s The Key Indicator To Watch.
/in Investing/by Tom 2The turmoil in India seems to be asserting itself as the tail wagging the emerging-market dog. The relentless declines in the rupee have been a problem for months, but the acceleration recently has stoked concerns that we may see a full-blown capital flight out of India. That’s a pretty big concern, because…
Heres’s Why The Plunge in the Indian Rupee Matters To You
/in Investing/by Tom 2In May and June, when markets initially declined on the prospects of Fed tapering, I pointed out to my clients two very important things we all needed to keep in mind as the market started to adjust to the reality of higher interest rates in the future.
The Economy: A Look Back and What’s Ahead
/in Investing/by Tom 2If economic data had been “Goldilocks” (meaning good, but not so good that the Fed would “taper” QE early) domestically during the past two months, then last week’s data was decidedly “anti-Goldilocks.” (It wasn’t bad enough to remove the prospects of tapering, but it wasn’t good enough to give people confidence the economy can keep growing if the Fed pulls back.)
Worried About The Fed Killing the Rally? Here Are Four ETFs That Should Rise Whether The Fed Tapers QE or Not
/in Investing/by Tom 2Whether the paper from the San Francisco Fed has any effect on Fed policy remains to be seen. But I think the conclusion that “forward guidance” is a more-effective policy tool than QE is incorrect, and I’m starting to get the impression that the academics at the Fed, and other central banks, are overvaluing “forward guidance.”
What’s Ahead Economically This Week.
/in Investing/by Tom 2This week is a reverse of last week: Not a lot of international data, but an increase in domestic reports, although most of the releases are “second-tier” and are unlikely to have an effect on Fed policy going forward.
Is Q2 Sector Performance Warning About Growth?
/in Investing, Reports/by Tom EssayeWhat’s in Today’s Report: Is the Second Quarter Market Performance Warning About Economic Growth?