What Credit Spreads Are Saying About the Economy

What’s in Today’s Report: What Credit Spreads Are Saying About the Economy

Bond Bubble

Something potentially very important just happened with the 10-year Treasury yield. It broke a downtrend in place since the start of 2016, and if it can hold this breakout through the Bank of Japan and Fed meeting next week, it will be a strong signal that the bond bull market may be ending, and interest […]

Chart of the Day: S&P 500 Volatility

Stocks surged back yesterday after dropping the most in nearly three months on Friday. The environment remains volatile and that is poised to continue with the next two critical catalysts coming next week: the Fed and BOJ.  

Chart of the Day: Technical Tipping Point in Oil

WTI crude oil futures approached a technical tipping point yesterday as they rallied into a near-term, downtrend resistance level. Where futures close today will be important for the near-term direction of energy prices  

ECB Preview

The first of the major central bank decisions in September comes tomorrow via the ECB, and from a general standpoint the major question heading into this meeting is: “Will the ECB ease further, hint at easing further, or stay firmly on the sidelines?” Given the uncertainty surrounding tomorrow’s decision, I found myself in my home […]

Chart of the Day: The 2016 Gold Rally Continues

After Friday’s lukewarm jobs number and the two ISM data “whiffs” in the last few days, gold futures have legged higher, holding a key trend-line that has been in place since January.  

What is a Dovish Hike?

One of the most enjoyable parts of my morning routine is reading about the history of each day, because doing this task daily shows you that indeed, history doesn’t necessarily repeat, but it does rhyme—and that was true again this morning. Since Friday, stocks have been under modest pressure as expectations for a 2016 rate […]