Are Stocks Pricing in an Economic Contraction?

What’s in Today’s Report: Bottom line – Are stocks pricing in an economic contraction? Weekly economic cheat sheet – Is stagflation imminent?

Worried About The Fed Killing the Rally? Here Are Four ETFs That Should Rise Whether The Fed Tapers QE or Not

Whether the paper from the San Francisco Fed has any effect on Fed policy remains to be seen. But I think the conclusion that “forward guidance” is a more-effective policy tool than QE is incorrect, and I’m starting to get the impression that the academics at the Fed, and other central banks, are overvaluing “forward guidance.”

What’s Ahead Economically This Week.

This week is a reverse of last week: Not a lot of international data, but an increase in domestic reports, although most of the releases are “second-tier” and are unlikely to have an effect on Fed policy going forward.

The Economy – A Look Back and A look Ahead

The economic data and central bank announcements last week were expected to help provide greater clarity on the three major questions in the market right now: When will the Fed taper? Is the European economy stabilizing? Is the slowing of China’s growth getting worse?

Interest Rates Moving Higher Despite Dovish FOMC Statement – Here’s the Need To Know

The FOMC meeting and statement generally met expectations, although on balance the statement was taken as slightly dovish (which shouldn’t surprise anyone).

FOMC, Jobs and Economic Data – It’s a Busy Week, Here’s the Need to Know

This is an extremely busy week of potential macro-economic catalysts and for more color into what the Fed might do next.

Correction or Pause? Here’s The Indicator to Watch.

The Dollar Index and Treasuries both rallied for the first time this week on Wednesday, but the main catalyst wasn’t the better economic data (although that obviously helped). Instead, the reports in the Washington Post and Huffington Post that Larry Summers appears to be the favorite to become the next Fed chairman weighed on Treasuries.