Are Stocks Pricing in an Economic Contraction?

What’s in Today’s Report: Bottom line – Are stocks pricing in an economic contraction? Weekly economic cheat sheet – Is stagflation imminent?

The Economy: A Look Back and What’s Ahead

Economic data last week was sparse, and what we did get largely missed expectations. But, the data wasn’t important enough, nor were the misses big enough, to materially alter the expected course of Fed policy. So, the net effect was that last week’s data further solidified that the Fed will announce QE tapering this month, but the amount of the taper will be very, very small (say $10 billion, give or take $5 billion).

Commodities Are 2% Higher This Week – Here’s Why the Rally Can Continue.

Commodities were up big Tuesday (DBC up 1%) as worries over Syria resulted in big rallies in the precious metals and energy. Another piece of stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data (industrial profits were better than estimates) and a weaker U.S. dollar also helped push commodities higher, but really yesterday was all about Syria.

The Economy: A Look Back and What’s Ahead

Economic data last week was largely supportive of the current market trends (improvement in global economic growth & tapering of QE in the U.S. to begin this fall). But the one glaring exception was Friday’s new home sales report, which implies higher mortgage rates are indeed acting as a headwind on the housing recovery.

Is This Decline a Buying Opportunity? Here’s The Key Indicator To Watch.

The turmoil in India seems to be asserting itself as the tail wagging the emerging-market dog. The relentless declines in the rupee have been a problem for months, but the acceleration recently has stoked concerns that we may see a full-blown capital flight out of India. That’s a pretty big concern, because…

Heres’s Why The Plunge in the Indian Rupee Matters To You

In May and June, when markets initially declined on the prospects of Fed tapering, I pointed out to my clients two very important things we all needed to keep in mind as the market started to adjust to the reality of higher interest rates in the future.

The Economy: A Look Back and What’s Ahead

If economic data had been “Goldilocks” (meaning good, but not so good that the Fed would “taper” QE early) domestically during the past two months, then last week’s data was decidedly “anti-Goldilocks.” (It wasn’t bad enough to remove the prospects of tapering, but it wasn’t good enough to give people confidence the economy can keep growing if the Fed pulls back.)