Are Stocks Pricing in an Economic Contraction?

What’s in Today’s Report: Bottom line – Are stocks pricing in an economic contraction? Weekly economic cheat sheet – Is stagflation imminent?

The Economy: A Look Back and What’s Ahead (11.25.13)

Last week was highlighted by lots of “Fed-speak” and important economic data, and the net effect of both was to firmly solidify expectations for a Q1 ‘14 tapering of QE, and to incrementally increase the chances for a January taper (as opposed to March). Despite last week’s good data and “hawkish” Fed-speak, a December taper is still remote (and it’ll take a blowout jobs report next week to move those odds up significantly).

Where Are You Going To Go?

I wanted to touch upon Mr. Fink’s comments about the pension fund re-balancing.  With the S&P 500 up 25% year-to-date, funds rebalancing their equity exposure to get back in line with their respective allocations makes sense. But my question is, where are they going to go with the cash?  Bonds? If I’m a PM at […]

China Announces Reforms, But Is It a Buy?

Interestingly, the initial reaction to the conclusion of the “Plenum” was one of disappointment, but we’re seeing a reverse “devil in the details” effect. In other words, the more details we get, the more the market likes the reforms that are being enacted.

The Economy: A Look Back and What’s Ahead

It was a relatively quiet week economically speaking, and the “highlight” was the Yellen testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. She was more “dovish” on the margin than generally was expected, although it’s safe to say nothing really new came from the testimony.

The Economy: A Look Back and What’s Ahead

Economic data last week were stronger than their relatively low expectations, as concerns about the negative effects of the government shutdown had resulted in pretty low expectations for most of October’s economic releases.

Three Reasons the Fed Won’t Taper QE in December (Despite Today’s Jobs Report)

This morning’s jobs report was certainly a positive surprise, but despite the fact that the bond market is getting hit hard, I’m not entirely sure that this report pulls forward any Fed tapering from the current March expectations.