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Tom Essaye Interviewed with Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi on February 11, 2020

“In the short-term, there are two things holding this market up. One, expectations of a dovish Fed…” Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye said on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade.

Larry Summers Was a Casualty of Syria

The big news over the weekend was Larry Summers withdrawing his name from consideration for Fed Chairman. Summers withdrew after Democratic Senator Jon Testor from Montana signaled Friday he would not vote for Summers, making it virtually impossible for Summers to make it out of the Senate banking committee vote needed before full Senate confirmation, which basically killed any chance for nomination.

Is Larry Summers a Casualty of Syria?

One of the more interesting things I was reading yesterday had to do with the topic of Chairman Bernanke’s successor. Over the past two weeks, the market had largely become resigned to the fact that Larry Summers would become the next Fed chair, which was viewed as an incrementally “hawkish” event. Acceptance of that fact is something that I think helped push Treasury yields to their recent highs.

The Economy: A Look Back and What’s Ahead

In almost an exact repeat of the first week of August’s data, almost every economic report last week pointed to an economy gaining steam, except the monthly jobs report.

The Economy: A Look Back and What’s Ahead

Economic data last week was sparse, and what we did get largely missed expectations. But, the data wasn’t important enough, nor were the misses big enough, to materially alter the expected course of Fed policy. So, the net effect was that last week’s data further solidified that the Fed will announce QE tapering this month, but the amount of the taper will be very, very small (say $10 billion, give or take $5 billion).

Commodities Are 2% Higher This Week – Here’s Why the Rally Can Continue.

Commodities were up big Tuesday (DBC up 1%) as worries over Syria resulted in big rallies in the precious metals and energy. Another piece of stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data (industrial profits were better than estimates) and a weaker U.S. dollar also helped push commodities higher, but really yesterday was all about Syria.

The Economy: A Look Back and What’s Ahead

Economic data last week was largely supportive of the current market trends (improvement in global economic growth & tapering of QE in the U.S. to begin this fall). But the one glaring exception was Friday’s new home sales report, which implies higher mortgage rates are indeed acting as a headwind on the housing recovery.