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Tom Essaye Quoted in Yahoo Finance on February 20, 2020

The second reason stocks could keep rising is that so far, the economic fallout from the COVID-19 virus appears to be only temporary. In fact, Essaye said investors are seemingly…

China Announces Reforms, But Is It a Buy?

Interestingly, the initial reaction to the conclusion of the “Plenum” was one of disappointment, but we’re seeing a reverse “devil in the details” effect. In other words, the more details we get, the more the market likes the reforms that are being enacted.

The Economy: A Look Back and What’s Ahead

It was a relatively quiet week economically speaking, and the “highlight” was the Yellen testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. She was more “dovish” on the margin than generally was expected, although it’s safe to say nothing really new came from the testimony.

The Economy: A Look Back and What’s Ahead

Economic data last week were stronger than their relatively low expectations, as concerns about the negative effects of the government shutdown had resulted in pretty low expectations for most of October’s economic releases.

Three Reasons the Fed Won’t Taper QE in December (Despite Today’s Jobs Report)

This morning’s jobs report was certainly a positive surprise, but despite the fact that the bond market is getting hit hard, I’m not entirely sure that this report pulls forward any Fed tapering from the current March expectations.

The Economy: A Look Back and What’s Ahead

The most important thing that happened last week economically was that expectations for Fed tapering of QE were pulled forward a bit—from the previous “consensus” of mid-2014 to the early part of 2014— thanks mainly to an FOMC statement that wasn’t as “dovish” as expected plus a Jon Hilsenrath sentence that stated a December taper remains “on the table.” Interestingly, this change in expectation came despite decidedly mixed economic data.

The Economy: A Look Back and What’s Ahead

With the drama in Washington successfully postponed, focus last week turned to the question of “How much damage has the shutdown and drama done to the economy?”