Today will be a typically quiet post-Thanksgiving Friday but there is an important economic report to watch: Composite Flash PMI (E: 54.8). Economic data has been more mixed lately, and a soft number here will fuel concerns the U.S. economy is losing momentum, futures are marginally lower as markets digest recent volatility following a mostly quiet Thanksgiving holiday and more.
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Pullback Update: Why we think the 2650-2850 trading range is still intact, today should be a generally quiet day as travel picks up for the Thanksgiving holiday, but, that said, there are three notable economic reports this morning: Durable Goods (E: -2.5%), Jobless Claims (E: 215k), Existing Home Sales (E: 5.21M). Bottom line, tech remains key in the short term and more.
What’s in Today’s Report: Why Stocks Dropped Yesterday? More Housing Trouble? Are “Gassy” MLPs a Buy? Today will be another quiet day, as we have no Fed speakers and just one economic number: Housing Starts (E: 1.24M), futures are moderately lower on momentum as Monday’s U.S market declines spilled over globally and more.
Four keys to a bottom, weekly market preview (busy despite the holiday), weekly economic cheat sheet (all about flash PMIs and housing), futures are marginally lower following a very quiet weekend as markets digest the Thursday/Friday rally and more.
Technical update, economic data recap, EIA analysis and oil update and more. Today, there is one important economic report to watch: Industrial Production (E: 0.2%) and two Fed speakers: Clarida before the open (8:30 a.m. ET) and Evans just before lunch (11:30 a.m. ET), otherwise, focus will be on tech shares today as if the bad earnings from NVDA weigh on the sector more broadly, then stocks will have a hard time extending yesterday’s bounce.
Will Politics Add to the Volatility? Today there is a lot of important economic data to watch (in order of importance): Retail Sales (E: 0.5%), Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: 20.0), Philly Fed (E: 20.0) and Jobless Claims (E: 215K). There are also multiple Fed speakers today including Quarles (10:00 a.m. ET), Powell (11:00 a.m. ET), Bostic (1:00 p.m. ET), Kashkari (3:00 p.m. ET) but I don’t expect any of them, including Powell, to reveal anything new.
Is Inflation Peaking Already? Futures are flat while overseas markets were mostly lower o/n after yesterday’s huge drop in oil weighed on risk sentiment, global data was mixed, and EU political tensions continued, today is the busiest day of the week as far as catalysts go and more.
Equity Risk Premium: A Disconcerting Statistic, futures are bouncing modestly after yesterday’s steep equity selloff, most of the more notable catalysts this week will come tomorrow (U.S. CPI, Chinese economic data, Powell speaks, earnings, etc.) but that doesn’t mean that downward momentum that began yesterday can’t continue so support in the S&P between 2705 and 2720 will be important to watch today and more.
Four Keys to a Market Bottom Updated, futures are slightly lower, today should be a generally quiet day given 1) the Veteran’s Day holiday (banks and bond markets are closed), and 2) There are no notable economic reports or earnings today, so, our focus today will be on the dollar, which is now at fresh 2018 highs. If it continues to grind higher that will likely pressure stocks today (a suddenly stronger dollar is not what this market needs right now) and more.
Why The October Sell Off Was Different, valuation Update (the market is fairly valued here), futures are moderately lower, today focus will be on inflation via PPI (E: 0.2%) and it needs to remain “Goldilocks” so as to not put more downward pressure on stocks. We also have several Fed speakers (Williams (8:30 a.m. ET), Harker (8:50 a.m. ET), Quarles (9:00 a.m. ET)) although the next big Fed event will be Fed Chair Powell speaking on Tuesday and more.