Sevens Report Quarterly Letter

Better Communication.  Stronger Client Relationships.  

More Time for Your Business and Family.  

All the scary headlines about banks runs, financial crisis 2.0 and a possible looming recession is making it harder for clients to avoid the urge to “get out” of markets and abandon their long-term financial plan.

That’s what I gathered from advisors I’ve spoken to over the past several weeks, as the eruption of the regional banking crisis following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank has rattled investors even more than before, with some pulling their money from the markets and their banks, and putting it into their mattresses!

To a point, I get it. The list of headwinds on stocks is long and growing:

  1. High interest rates

  2. Still high inflation

  3. Possible recession

  4. Earnings declines and now,

  5. Worst banking crisis since 2008!
Yet, despite all these risks and headwinds, the S&P 500 was resilient in the first quarter and since the lows in October the market performance has been much better than the scary headlines would imply!  
Keeping clients focused on that positive market reality and demonstrating to them you, their advisor, understand the risks for their money and can navigate this market successfully is critical to 1) Keeping clients on their long term financial plans and 2) Avoiding panic decisions like going to cash that can jeopardize long term goals!  
One of the best ways advisors can show clients that they do understand the risks to their assets and can navigate this market environment is with a focused, non-generic high-quality quarterly letter.  
That’s why, in 2018, I created the Sevens Report Quarterly Letter – so that all advisors could easily, efficiently, and effectively communicate with their clients.    
And, I think that is especially true given the scary headlines about bank runs, financial crisis, and recession circulating in the financial and mainstream media right now! Our Q1 2023 Sevens Report Quarterly Letter will explain what’s happening with the banks, put the risks facing investors in the proper perspective, and emphasize that markets remain resilient!  
I know writing a quarterly letter is both time-consuming and difficult. That’s why many advisors don’t seize this opportunity to effectively communicate with their clients and show that they are on top of markets and monitoring risks to portfolios. A quarterly letter is one of the best ways an advisor can remind clients of the benefits of sticking to a well-designed financial plan – because those plans have weathered financial crisis, bear markets, and pandemics, and they will weather this most recent market turmoil!  
Numerous studies have shown that consistent client communication leads to better relationships, more referrals, and better client retention, but a generic, non-specific letter from a broker’s CIO isn’t going to cut it.
Especially in this environment, we know that writing a quarterly letter that leaves clients impressed and feeling good about the advisor/client relationships is difficult! 
On average, the advisors we spoke to said they spent between six and 10 hours researching, writing, editing and proofing their quarterly letters. If you’re as busy as most of the advisors I know, that’s way too much time and stress to devote to a quarterly letter.

That’s why we write a complete and finished quarterly letter for our advisor subscribers.

On the first business day of every quarter (the upcoming quarterly letter will be sent on Monday, April 3rd) we email current quarterly letter subscribers:

  1. A complete, edited and finished client letter, delivered in a word document so it can easily be edited.

  2. Instructions on how we think you should submit the letter to increase compliance approval.

  3. A comprehensive back-up sheet to send to compliance along with your letter that cites any statements and verifies all return data.
We know getting the letter through compliance can seem like a daunting challenge, but the overwhelming majority of our quarterly letter subscribers have their letters approved by compliance.
And, to provide you extra peace of mind, we offer a full refund if compliance rejects the letter for any reason!
We write a quarterly letter in the voice of an advisor, directed towards clients (and prospects), that our subscribers can edit (if they choose to) and send along as their own.
That means you can:

  1. Use it “as is.” Meaning put it on your letterhead, get the approval, sign it, and ship it right out the door.

  2. Edit it as you see fit, using the content in conjunction with your own takes.

  3. Send it to anyone you like: clients, prospects, family and friends.
And, since we send you the content, it can be approved by compliance because it is coming from YOU.
On Monday, April 3rd we will be sending our Sevens Report Quarterly Letter for Q1 2023 to our paid subscribers so they can have their letter sent (or ready to be sent) within the first few trading days of the new quarter.
Sevens Report Quarterly Letter template will contain:

  • A macro “look back” at the most-recent quarter that will explain what factors drove the markets.

  • Important performance data for major asset classes and various indexes.

  • A look ahead in the coming quarter including general analysis of risks and opportunities (but, no predictions).

  • And, like the Sevens Report, it’ll be well-written, simplified, and brief.

But we can only explain the letter so much. To get the real value of our letter, you need to see it for yourself.

So, we’ve included our Q4 2022 Sevens Report Quarterly letter that was sent to paid subscribers on January 3rd so you can see exactly what the product looks and feels like:
Quarterly Insights – April 2023

Optional Title #1:  The S&P 500 Starts the Year with Gains Despite Continued Uncertainty

Optional Title #2:  Markets Show Resilience to Start 2023

Optional Title #3:  Declining Inflation and Resilient Growth Push Stocks Higher in Q1

Or

Dear Client,
The S&P 500 ended the first quarter of 2023 with a solid gain as hopes for an economic “soft landing” and the Fed signaling that their historic rate hike campaign is coming to an end helped offset two rate increases and the biggest bank failures since the financial crisis.

Markets started 2023 with strong gains in January, which were primarily driven by a continued decline in widely followed inflation indicators. That decline in price pressures was coupled with surprisingly resilient economic data, especially in the labor market. That decline in price pressures was coupled with surprisingly resilient economic data, especially in the labor market. Those forces combined to increase investors’ hopes that the Fed could deliver an economic soft landing, whereby the economy slows but avoids a painful recession while inflation moves close to the Fed’s target. Additionally, corporate earnings for the fourth quarter of 2022, which were reported in January, were “better than feared” and the resilient nature of corporate America contributed to the growing hope that both an economic and earnings recession could be avoided. The S&P 500 posted strong gains in the month of January, rising more than 6%.    

In February, growing optimism for an economic soft landing was delivered a setback, however, as economic data implied a still very tight labor market while the decline in inflation stalled. The January jobs report, released in early February, showed a massive gain in jobs, implying that the labor market will remain extremely tight (something the Fed believes is contributing to inflation). Later in the month, widely followed inflation metrics such as CPI and the Core PCE Price Index showed minimal further price declines, implying that the drop in inflation that had powered the gains in stocks was ending. The strong economic data and a leveling off of inflation metrics led investors to price in substantially higher interest rates in the coming months, and that weighed on both stocks and bonds in February. The S&P 500 finished with a modest loss on the month, falling just over 2%.

The final month of the first quarter began with investors still focused on inflation and potential interest rate hikes, but the sudden failure of Silicon Valley Bank, at the time the 16th largest bank in the United States, shifted investor focus to a potentially growing banking crisis. Signature Bank of New York failed just days later, and concerns about a regional banking crisis surged. In response, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department created new lending programs aimed at shoring up regional banks and preventing bank runs but concerns about the health of the financial system persisted and those fears weighed on markets through the middle of March. However, while the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates again at the March meeting, policy makers signaled that they are very close to ending the current rate hike campaign. That admission, combined with no additional large bank failures, eased concerns about a growing banking crisis, and the S&P 500 was able to rally during the final two weeks of March to finish the month with a small gain.

In sum, markets were impressively resilient in the first quarter as a looming end to rate hikes, further declines in inflation and quick and effective actions by government officials in response to regional bank failures helped shore up confidence in the banking system. Stocks and bonds both logged modest gains in Q1, despite the threat of a regional banking crisis and still-elevated market volatility. 
First Quarter Performance Review

The first quarter of 2023 saw a sharp reversal in index and sector performance compared to 2022. On an index level, the Nasdaq (which badly underperformed in 2022) handily outperformed in the first quarter and finished with very impressive returns. That outperformance was driven by a decline in bond yields (which makes growth-oriented tech and consumer companies more attractive to investors) and as mega-cap tech companies such as Apple, Alphabet, Amazon and others were viewed as “safe havens” amidst the late-quarter banking stress. The S&P 500, with its heavy weighting to tech, finished the quarter with a solidly positive return while the Dow Industrials and Russell 2000 logged more modest, but still positive returns through the first three months of the year.

By market capitalization, large caps outperformed small caps, as they did throughout 2022. Concerns about funding sources, should the banking crisis worsen, and higher interest rates weighed on small caps as smaller companies are historically more dependent on financing to maintain operations and fuel growth.

From an investment style standpoint, growth handily outperformed value which is a sharp reversal from 2022. Tech-heavy growth funds benefited from the aforementioned decline in bond yields and a late-quarter “flight to safety” amidst the regional banking crisis. Value funds, which have larger weightings towards financials, were weighed down by concerns about a potential broader banking crisis. On a sector level, seven of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished the first quarter with a positive return. Notably, the three top performers from the first quarter were the three worst performing sectors in 2022.

On a sector level, seven of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished the first quarter with a positive return. Notably, the three top performers from the first quarter were the three worst performing sectors in 2022. Communication services was one of the best performing sectors in the first quarter thanks to strong gains from internet-focused tech stocks, as lower rates and the rotation to mega-cap tech companies pushed the sector higher. The technology sector also clearly benefitted from those two trends, as it rose slightly more than the communications sector in Q1. Finally, consumer discretionary, which has larger weightings towards tech-based consumer companies such as Amazon and others, also logged a solidly positive gain thanks to the same general tech stock outperformance and as the labor market remained more resilient than expected, improving the prospects for consumer spending in the months ahead.

Turning to the laggards, the financial sector was the worst performer in the first quarter as the regional banking crisis weighed on bank stocks and financials more broadly. Energy also logged solid declines through the first quarter as growing concerns about global economic growth and subsequent weakness in consumer demand weighed on energy stocks. More broadly, the remaining S&P 500 sectors saw small quarterly gains or losses, as there remains a lot of uncertainty about future economic growth and earnings and the banking stresses that emerged in March will only add an additional headwind on economic growth. 
Internationally, foreign markets largely traded in line with the S&P 500 in the first quarter and realized positive returns. Foreign developed markets outperformed the S&P 500 through the first three months of the year as economic data in Europe was better than expected and European banks were viewed as mostly insulated from the U.S. regional bank crisis. Emerging markets logged slightly positive returns through March but underperformed the S&P 500 thanks to still-elevated geopolitical stress, as U.S.-China tensions rose following the Chinese spy balloon affair. 
Commodities saw sharp declines in the first quarter thanks mostly to the notable weakness in oil prices, which hit fresh 52-week lows. Oil fell during the first quarter on rising global recession worries and subsequent reductions in demand expectations, while geopolitical risks didn’t rise enough to offset those demand concerns. Gold, however, posted a solidly positive return as investors moved to the yellow metal as a store of value amidst the regional banking stress. 
Switching to fixed income markets, the leading benchmark for bonds (Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index) realized a positive return for the first quarter of 2023, although bonds were volatile to start the year. The Fed signaling an imminent end to rate hikes combined with concerns that the regional banking crisis would raise the odds of a recession, fueled a broad bond market rally in the first quarter.

Looking deeper into the fixed income markets, longer-duration bonds outperformed those with shorter durations in the first quarter, as bond investors welcomed further declines in inflation and reached for long-term yield amidst an uncertain outlook for future economic growth.

Turning to the corporate bond market, higher-quality investment grade bonds and higher-yielding, “junk” rated corporate debt registered similarly positive returns in the first quarter. Investors moved to both types of corporate debt following declines in inflation and as corporate earnings results were largely better than feared. 

Second Quarter Market Outlook

Markets begin the new quarter facing multiple sources of uncertainty including the path of inflation, future economic growth, the number of remaining Fed rate hikes, and whether the regional banking crisis is truly contained. Yet despite all this uncertainty, markets have proven resilient over the past six months since hitting their lows in October of 2022. So, while headwinds remain in place and markets will likely stay volatile, there remains a path for future positive returns.

Starting with the regional banking crisis, despite consistent comparisons in the financial media between what happened in March and the 2007-2008 financial crisis, there are important differences between the two periods and regulators have already demonstrated their commitment to ensuring we do not experience a repeat of those difficult days. As we begin the new quarter, there is reason for hope this crisis has been contained. But regardless of whether that’s true, regulators and government officials have proven they are ready to use current tools (or create new ones) to prevent a broader spread of the regional banking crisis, and that’s an important, and positive, difference from 2008.

Looking past the regional bank crisis, inflation remains a major longer-term influence on the markets and the economy, and whether inflation resumes its decline this quarter will be very important for investors and the markets. More specifically, the decline in inflation somewhat stalled in February and March but if the decline in inflation resumes in the second quarter that will provide a powerful tailwind for both stocks and bonds.


Regarding economic growth, markets rallied on the hope of an economic soft landing earlier in the first quarter, and while the regional banking crisis complicates that optimistic outlook, it is still possible. To that point, employment, consumer spending and economic growth more broadly have remained impressively resilient, so while we should all expect some slowing in the economy this quarter, a recession is by no means guaranteed. If the economy achieves a soft landing that will be a material positive for risk assets.

Finally, after one of the most intense interest rate hike campaigns in history, the Fed has signaled that it is close to being done with rate increases, and that will remove a material headwind on the economy. As long as that expectation for a looming end to rate hikes does not change, it’ll increase the chances that the economy can achieve the desired soft landing.

To be sure, this remains a tumultuous time in the markets. Investors are facing the highest interest rates in decades, the worst geopolitical tensions in years, and a very uncertain economic outlook that deteriorated in the wake of recent bank failures. But while concerning, it’s important to realize that underlying U.S. economic fundamentals and U.S. corporate earnings proved incredibly resilient through the first quarter. And those two factors, steady economic growth and strong earnings, are the real long-term drivers of market performance, not the latest disconcerting geopolitical or financial headlines. 


As such, we are prepared for continued volatility and are focused on managing both risks and return potential. We understand that a well-planned, long-term-focused, and diversified financial plan can withstand virtually any market surprise and related bout of volatility, including bank failures, multi-decade highs in inflation, high interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and rising recession risks.

At John Doe Advisors, we understand the risks facing both the markets and the economy, and we are committed to helping you effectively navigate this challenging investment environment. Successful investing is a marathon, not a sprint, and even intense volatility is unlikely to alter a diversified approach set up to meet your long-term investment goals.

Therefore, it’s critical for you to stay invested, remain patient, and stick to the plan, as we’ve worked with you to establish a unique, personal allocation target based on your financial position, risk tolerance, and investment timeline.

We remain vigilant towards risks to portfolios and the economy, and we thank you for your ongoing confidence and trust. Please rest assured that our entire team will remain dedicated to helping you successfully navigate this market environment.

Please do not hesitate to contact us with any questions, comments, or to schedule a portfolio review.

Sincerely,

Signature

John Doe

John Doe Advisors
1 Orange Street
Miami, FL 11111
(123) 123-1234

Let Us Do The Work
We view the start of the new quarter as a perfect opportunity to show clients that you’re not about to get blindsided by higher rates or rising inflation, and that a sound financial plan can weather any financial storm (including a historic pandemic).

And, in doing so, you can remind them just how valuable your services have been as you helped them navigate the most volatile year in the markets since the financial crisis!

Look, I know some of you are not planning on writing a quarterly letter at all.


If you’re in this camp, I’m worried you’re making a colossal mistake, especially with so much uncertainty looming. Potentially, you’re leaving yourself exposed to losing clients to advisors who may communicate more effectively! 

Whether you use our service, please consider writing a letter this year as clients are surely very nervous given the recent volatility.

The rest of you are probably doing it, but begrudgingly.

It could take a day, a few days, or even a week or more to fine-tune and write this type of commentary. Again, quarterly letters in the last few years were easy as markets were calm, but the trading environment has changed drastically in the last month, and trying to explain this market to investors will be as hard as it has been in years.

Plus, you may be circulating it around the office for input and re-working it further after that. Your compliance department will probably want to inspect it, too!

To top it off, you might still be unsure if it’s any good.

And the ultimate kick in the teeth is fearing what your clients think upon reading it.

No one likes this process, and that’s why we provide:

  • A high-quality letter. With strengthening the client relationship as the main goal, it is written in a clear, concise, and plain-English format (similar to how we write the Sevens Report and Sevens Report Alpha).

  • A timely letter. The Sevens Report Quarterly Letter is delivered on the first trading day of the new quarter.

  • A separate compliance backup document that provides back up for any subjective claims, as well as any numbers or statistics referenced in the letter.

  • A turnkey solution. You can literally put your firm name, address, and logo on it, sign it, convert it to a PDF, and let it fly. Naturally, if you want to make any edits to it, feel free. That’s perfectly okay.
As I said earlier, this product has been a tremendous success, as it’s helping advisors: 1) Improve client communication, 2) Save Time, and 3) Reduce Stress.

And our quarterly letters have passed compliance at the biggest firms on Wall Street!

But, don’t take it from me, hear it directly from our subscribers (and your competition):

Thank you for this quarterly letter service. This is my first one and it is very helpful for my practice, and not to mention extremely well written. You and your team have been a very beneficial partner since I use your sevens report daily in my discussions with clients, and now parlaying this quarterly letter has been a great asset.

Thanks Tom!

M..J. RIA

“I really like this. I’m so glad I can lock this in and not have to worry about doing this in the future.”

W.V. UBS Advisor

“I love this.” 

B.C. Stifel Advisor 

Tom, 

“I'll give this a try. I value my time at $1000/hr. If this saves me ten hours...you can do the math.”

J.R. Raymond James Advisor

Now is the time to ensure you have a turnkey quarterly letter, ready to send to clients to help turn this historic volatility and uncertainty into an opportunity to create a strong client/advisor bond. 

Quality Research at a Compelling Value

In doing market research, we could only find one other firm that was writing a quarterly letter commentary for advisors.

The problem was you could only get it as part of a bundle of other products and the cost was $5,000/year!

I know for a fact that some advisors who use this particular group offered to pay $2,500 per year for the quarterly commentaries, separately. But, this firm hasn’t obliged.

Frankly, I think either of those amounts is outrageous.

So, I’m undercutting the competition on the cost by 80% per quarter. Or by 82%, annually.

Now, that’s a serious discount.

Sevens Report Quarterly Letter subscription costs just $250/quarter (cancel any time, but no refunds on the current quarter’s letter) or $915 if you pay annually (you save $85 with this option).

The way we see it, if we help you retain just one client or grab one additional allocation by sending these quarterly letters to clients, it will more than cover the cost!

I see this as a win-win because we use our strength (writing about the markets) to help you:

  • Save time (small survey of advisors averaged 6-10 hours working on their quarterly letters)

  • Show you’re on top of markets with impressive market analysis

  • Improve communication with clients and prospects

  • Strengthen relationships

  • Win additional assets from existing clients or prospects

And the best part is, it will be coming directly from you.

It will allow you to spend more time doing what you do best and doing what you want.

Begin your subscription to the Sevens Report Quarterly Letter right now by clicking the button below and get redirected to our secure order form.

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Finally, everything in business is a trade-off between capital and returns.

So, if you commit to an annual subscription, you get one month free, a savings of $85 dollars. To sign up for an annual subscription, simply click here.

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Best,

Tom Essaye
Editor
Sevens Report
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