History suggests the answer is probably no

History suggests the answer is probably no. More often, the reversal of a yield-curve inversion has signaled that the wheels are about to come off the economy and the stock market with it, according to Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader and founder of Sevens Report Research.

WWFD (What Will Fed Do) is Now the Driving Force of Markets

Last week was very quiet economically speaking, although what little data there was generally beat expectations. The majority of the data last week was internationally focused.

Boring But Important: Junk Yields Sink Below 5%

Bubbles are all about the suspension of the proper pricing of risk—and I believe we’re seeing it in the junk market. I’m not saying that junk bonds yields trading below 5% is akin to subprime loans trading where they were in the heights of the real estate bubble, but I’m just pointing out that…

Is the gold rally capped?

Gold: Since December of last year, the 23 & 30 day moving averages have capped any rally, and they look to be doing so again. $1440 is critical support at this point.

Is Dis-Inflation Good For Stocks?

Yesterday was a pretty quiet day in the markets, but one consistent theme that showed up in economic data releases was something we’ve been ahead of the curve on here…

Four Major Market Moving Events to Watch This Week

Economic data was almost universally disappointing last week, although it obviously didn’t have the expected effect on the market (more on why below). The big numbers of last week, the global flash PMIs, all either missed expectations (China, U.S. and Germany) or met low expectations and remained…

The Russell 2000 and Dow Transports are Fast Approaching

The Russell 2000 and Dow Transports are fast approaching the pre-selloff levels from last week, so a break above 6143 in the Dow Transports and 938 in the Russell 2000 would be significant.