Rotation to Value
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index eased to 107.9 vs. (E) 108.0 last month, but remains near a record high, with the NFIB already out, there are no additional economic reports in the US today but there are two Fed speakers to watch, one shortly after the open: Evans (10:00 a.m. ET) and one later this evening: Williams (9:15 p.m.ET) and more.
Start of a Pullback? Two Factors to Watch
Today the calendar is quiet due to the Columbus Day holiday, and as such there are no economic reports today or Fed speakers, and the bond market is closed. That said, we could still see volatility and once again tech is a leading indicator for the market, futures and most global markets are moderately lower thanks to further deterioration in U.S./China relations and more.
Higher Rate Playbook
Today the focus will be on the jobs report, and expectations are – Jobs: 180k, Unemployment: 3.8%, Wages: 0.3% m/m, 2.9% y/y, futures are flat following a generally quiet night as markets look ahead to this morning’s jobs report and more.
U.S. oil drops nearly 3% – Tyler Richey’s Take on Market Watch, October 4, 2018
“Fundamental dynamics have shifted in favor of the bears this week with a huge build in commercial crude oil stocks and news that Saudi Arabia and Russia made a private agreement weeks ago to increase output to help offset the declining exports from Iran,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor of the Sevens Report.
Yield Breakout (Threat to Stocks?)
Today focus will be on bond yields (does the surge in yields/dollar continue?) as well as the Pence speech on China (just how critical will it be?), futures are moderately lower following hawkish commentary by Fed Chair Powell and ahead of a critical speech on China by VP Pence and more.
Why Italy’s Budget Matters
Europe will remain the primary focus today and as long as the overnight progress on the Italian budget plans is not forfeited in morning trade (before the Euro close) then risk on money flows and an easing dollar should support some upward momentum in US stocks today, futures are modestly higher and European shares stabilized overnight thanks to positive developments in Italy and more.
Did Powell Really Get More Hawkish on Tuesday?
/in Investing, Reports/by Tom EssayeWhat’s in Today’s Report: Did Powell Really Get More Hawkish on Tuesday? And EIA Update and Oil Market Analysis.