What is Evergrande and Why Isn’t It Causing More Problems?

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The Economy: A Look Back and What’s Ahead

Last Week Economic data last week importantly confirmed that the weakness we saw in December/January was weather-related and temporary. The decent March PMIs and jobs report likely put to bed any major concerns about the U.S. economy losing steam.  But, given the trend of February data, last week’s data merely confirmed what was widely assumed, […]

The Economy: A Look Back and What’s Ahead (3.24.14)

The major question for the market remains: “Was the slowdown in economic activity in Dec/Jan largely the result of the awful weather?” Last week the February and March data further implied the answer is “Yes,” and that’s a good thing for the stock market.

The Economy: A Look Back and What’s Ahead (3.17.14)

Last Week The domestic economic calendar was very sparse last week, as most of the market’s focus was on Chinese data. Starting with the U.S., though, the two U.S. reports last week were retail sales and weekly jobless claims.  Both slightly beat estimates (retail sales rose 0.3% vs. 0.2% and weekly jobless claims were 315K vs. 330K), but neither report really changes anyone’s outlook for the economy or Fed policy. The most “important” economic data last week came from China, as the country reported its trade balance, retail sales, fixed-asset investment and industrial production last Thursday. All of the report missed estimates, raising concerns that the Chinese economy is seeing growth further slow (multiple firms reduced their Chinese GDP forecasts to between 7.0% and 7.5%). Read More

KOL (the coal stock ETF) Has Gotten Hammered on Peripheral China Concerns

KOL (the coal stock ETF) has gotten hammered on peripheral China concerns. But with natural gas prices so high, coal fundamentals are improving.