Reminiscent Of The 2018 ‘Volmageddon’ Event
An important reason why the S&P 500 dropped 1.4% on Tuesday, according to Essaye, was an an overcrowded short side of the options market, which exacerbated the selling.
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Rising level Of Greed In The ‘Short-Volatility’ Trade
“Stocks on Tuesday seemed to have an additional influence weighing on the broader market,” Tom Essaye, the founder and president of Sevens Report Research, wrote.
The Reason Stocks Dropped Was Because The CPI Report
“Instead, the reason stocks dropped was because the CPI report was the first data point in 2024 to not confirm these fantastically positive assumptions that have driven this rally.”
Growth Data Becomes Even More Important
Essaye adds that Thursday’s growth data becomes even more important because the bullish thesis is built on a belief the central bank cuts rates and growth stays stable.
The Market Had Gotten Ahead Of Itself
Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s in a phone interview that while the report didn’t imply that inflation was bouncing back significantly, the market had gotten ahead of itself by pricing in inflation crashing to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye Quoted In Barron’s
Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released median inflation expectations from its January survey…
Expectations of a “higher-for longer” policy by the Federal Reserve
Expectations of a “higher-for longer” policy by the Federal Reserve are weighing on the demand outlook and have therefore acted as a headwind for U.S. benchmark oil prices recently, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch.
The Burden Of Proof Lies Squarely With The Bears
The burden of proof lies squarely with the bears and so far, the economic data and Fed speak hasn’t done enough to disprove any of those four bullish factors,” wrote the firm.
The Four Drivers Of This Bull Market
Last week’s news and data reinforced the four drivers of this bull market: Fed rate cuts by May, solid economic growth, continued disinflation and strong earnings, according to Tom Essaye at the Sevens Report.
European Shares Edged Up On Better Than Feared Retail Sales
European shares edged up on better than feared Retail Sales and a very strong German Manufacturing Orders Report, said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research.