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How Nervous Are Investors Right Now?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sentiment Update – How Nervous Are Investors Right Now?
  • A Timely Chart: NVDA Falls to Target From Last Thursday’s Report

U.S. equity futures are tracking global markets higher after European economic data came in better than expected and traders optimistically look ahead to big-tech earnings.

The EU’s April PMI Composite Flash rose 1.1 points to 51.4 vs. (E) 50.8 thanks to a solid 52.9 Services sub-index print. The strong data is helping ease worries of stagflation and a weakening consumer which have been simmering so far in 2024.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with the PMI Composite Flash (E:51.9) release and New Home Sales (E: 670K) report due out this morning.

There are no Fed speakers today but the Treasury will hold a 2-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which could offer insight into any changes in Fed policy expectations (the risk to stocks is an auction with weak demand that sends the 2-Yr yield to-or-through 5%).

Earnings season also continues to pick up today with UPS ($1.33), GM ($2.06), LMT ($5.80), GE ($0.67), PEP ($1.52), and SHW ($2.25) reporting before the bell while TSLA ($0.49) and V ($2.43) will release results after the close.

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Did Powell Really Get More Hawkish on Tuesday?

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Did Powell Really Get More Hawkish on Tuesday? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Did Powell Really Get More Hawkish on Tuesday?
  • EIA Update and Oil Market Analysis

Futures are slightly higher on better-than-expected earnings and following a generally quiet night of news.

Taiwan Semi-Conductor (TSMC) posted solid earnings and that’s helping to offset yesterday’s disappointing ASML report and giving tech stocks (and global stocks) a mild boost.

Looking forward, today is a busy day of data, Fed speak and earnings.

Starting with the economic data, the market needs Goldilocks reports to help stocks and bonds stabilize, which means readings at or below expectations, especially on the price indices in the Philly Fed survey.  Key reports today include:  Jobless Claims (E: 215K), Philly Fed (E: 0.0) and Existing Home Sales (E: 4.18 M).

Turning to the Fed, there are three speakers today:  Bowman (9:05 a.m. ET), Williams (9:15 a.m. ET) and Bostic (11:00 a.m. ET).  Williams is the most important of the three, but if the commentary reinforces there are no near-term rate cuts coming, that will be an incremental headwind on stocks and bonds.

Finally, on the earnings front, the calendar continues to heat up and key reports today include:  TSMC ($1.29), NFLX ($4.51), PPG ($1.86), WAL ($1.70).

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A Return to Reasonable Valuations? April MMT Chart

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A Return to Reasonable Valuations? April MMT Chart: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Return to Reasonable Valuations? April MMT Chart
  • Dip-Buying Becomes Riskier in Late-Cycle Environments
  • Housings Starts Plunge in March – Chart

Futures are higher this morning as the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense but stable, inflation data was largely as-expected, and good consumer-focused earnings are helping offset soft sales from chip-maker ASML.

Economically, EU Core CPI met estimates at 2.9% while the U.K.’s Core CPI figure was “warm” at 4.2% vs. (E) 4.1% but neither report is materially impacting the general “higher for longer” central bank policy stance in place right now.

There are no notable economic reports today and just two late-day Fed speakers: Mester (5:30 p.m. ET), Bowman (7:15 p.m. ET).

That will leave trader focus on the Treasury’s 20-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET as weak demand would add upward pressure on yields and pressure stocks.

Additionally, earnings season continues with TRV ($4.75), CFG ($0.75), CSX ($0.45), and DFS ($2.98) reporting today, however, none of those names should have a significant impact on the broader market unless there is a glaring disappointment or upside surprise.

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Market Multiple Table: April Update

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Market Multiple Table: April Update: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table – April Update
  • Retail Sales Takeaways
  • Empire State Manufacturing Index Disappoints

Futures are slightly lower amid Chinese growth worries, hawkish Fed expectations and simmering geopolitical risks.

Economically, Chinese GDP was solid (5.3% vs. E: 4.9%) but Retail Sales were soft at 3.1% vs. (E) 5.0% and Home Prices dropped 2.2% y/y which weighed on Asian markets overnight.

Looking into today’s session, there are two economic reports to watch: Housing Starts (E: 1.48 million) and Industrial Production (E: 0.4%). Markets are looking for slowing growth in the economic data so anything “too hot” or “too cold” in today’s releases will further weigh on stocks.

There are also several Fed speakers today. In chronological order they are: Jefferson (9:00 a.m. ET), Williams (12:30 p.m. ET), Barkin (1:00 p.m. ET), and most importantly, Powell (1:15 p.m. ET). Any commentary supporting “higher for longer” Fed policy rates will be negative while a dovish surprise could spark a sharp short-covering rally given near-term oversold conditions in equity markets.

Earnings season also continues today with BAC ($0.77), MS ($1.69), UNH ($6.65), and JNJ ($2.64) reporting ahead of the bell while UAL (-$0.53) and JBHT ($1.53) will release results after the close.

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Understanding Why the Decline in Inflation Has Stalled

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Understanding Why the Decline in Inflation Has Stalled: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Understanding Why the Decline in Inflation Has Stalled

Futures are slightly lower following more disappointing Chinese economic data and as geo-political concerns rise.

Chinese exports fell –7.5% vs. (E) -1.9% underscoring that growth remains a major concern in the Chinese economy.

Oil and gold are sharply higher on a WSJ article stating Iran could directly retaliate against Israel this weekend (a direct attack on Israel by Iran would be a substantial escalation).

Today there is one notable economic report, Consumer Sentiment (E: 79.0), but barring major surprise that shouldn’t move markets.    Instead, focus will be on Fed Speak and earnings.

Starting with the Fed, we have several speakers today including Schmid (1:00 p.m.), Bostic (2:30 p.m.) and Daly (3:30 p.m.) and if they echo Thursday’s commentary that rate cuts aren’t coming soon, expect mild pressure on stocks.

On earnings, today is the start of the Q1 earnings season and several big banks report including: JPM ($4.18), BLK ($4.92), WFC ($1.09) and C ($1.29).  Focus will be on the results and on consumer commentary and the stronger the commentary, the more of a tailwind earnings will provide to stocks.

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The CPI report has the potential to either push the S&P 500 index to new highs

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The CPI report has the potential to either push the S&P 500 index to new highs: Sevens Report, Quoted in MarketWatch

Fed-funds futures point to doubts over June rate cut as inflation data looms

Investors this week are waiting for a reading on inflation in March due out on Wednesday from the closely watched consumer-price index. The CPI report has the potential to either push the S&P 500 index to new highs or extend the U.S. stock market’s drop last week, according to a Sevens Report Research note on Monday.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on April 8th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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CPI Preview: Good, Bad, Ugly

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CPI Preview: Good, Bad, Ugly: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • CPI Preview: Good, Bad, Ugly
  • Where to Find Rate Cut Probabilities

Stock futures are modestly higher this morning as the bond market steadies ahead of tomorrow’s key inflation data while financial newswires were mostly quiet overnight.

Overseas, Taiwan’s headline CPI fell sharply from 3.1% to 2.1% vs (E) 2.5% in March. Domestically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped to 88.5 vs. (E) 89.9.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are no economic reports today and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak which is setting up a fairly quiet morning in the markets.

The one potential catalysts on the calendar today is the 3-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Equity markets are watching yields closely here, so if today’s auction is weak and yields move higher this afternoon that will weigh on stocks and other risk assets. However, moves should be limited as traders position into tomorrow’s inflation data.

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The Most Important Short-Term Market Indicator

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The Most Important Short-Term Market Indicator: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Most Important Short-Term Market Indicator
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Will CPI Decline Further?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Inflation in Focus This Week (And It Needs to Keep Falling)

Futures are flat following a mostly quiet weekend as markets digest Friday’s rally and look ahead to Wednesday’s CPI.

Geo-political tensions eased slightly and that’s weighing modestly on oil prices as Iran said it would not retaliate again Israel if a cease-fire in Gaza is reached.

Economically, German Industrial Production solidly beat estimates (2.1% vs. (E) 0.3%).

Today will be a mostly quiet day as there are no notable economic reports and just one Fed speaker, Kashkari (7:00 p.m. ET), but he speaks after the close.  So, digestion of Friday’s rebound and positioning ahead of Wednesday’s CPI will likely drive trading today.

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The key for the ISM manufacturing survey is stability

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The key for the ISM manufacturing survey is stability: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Stock Futures Point to Record Highs as Investors Mull Cuts to Interest Rates

“The key for the ISM manufacturing survey is stability. An in-line or better than expected result will further reinforce that growth is resilient and likely support the early rally,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on April 1st, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Tom Essaye interviewed by Barron’s

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 Durable-goods number showed stable growth: Tom Essaye Interviewed by Barron’s

Market’s Spirit Isn’t Dampened by Mixed Economic Data

In an interview with Barron’s, Tom Essaye of Sevens Report Research said the durable-goods number showed stable growth while the consumer confidence reading was light.

“Every time the market is reminded that we’ve got stable growth, still falling inflation, a looming rate cut —which was reinforced last week—and positive AI headlines, the default reaction is to rally. And rightly so. And that’s exactly what’s happening today,” he said.

Essaye also called the collapse of Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge a “tremendous tragedy”and thinks the disaster could trickle into economic reports at a time when the Federal Reserve is watching all numbers closely.

“This is going to cloud some of the economic data, potentially, which has some risk associated with it because the data is really important right now,” Essaye said. “It will probably send some noisiness into the data. We’re just going to have to look through that as best we can over the next couple of months. That’s something to pay attention to.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on March 26th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.