Gaming the US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index rallied 0.64% yesterday, and recouped a week’s worth of losses thanks to more strong economic data, namely revised Q2 GDP, jobless claims and Pending Home Sales. The US Dollar Index, as represented by the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP) ETF, now has totally retracted the declines since last Thursday.[…]

The Fed Comments Aren’t What They Seem

Expectations for Fed policy have shifted over the past week thanks to stock market volatility and Fed comments from two prominent FOMC members, Atlanta Fed President Lockhart and Vice Chair William Dudley. The stock market volatility is obviously dovish for the Fed near term, and that was confirmed by the Fed comments from Lockhart and[…]

Is it Time to De-Risk?

The nexus of this de-risk pullback lies in global growth fears, which began back in June when commodities (and oil) went into freefall. Despite being primarily a supply driven phenomenon, the commodity decline was combined with sluggish data in China to ignite concerns about a China-driven emerging market slowdown. Those initial growth fears, and the[…]

Fed Pilots Don’t Inspire Confidence

Yesterday, the FOMC Minutes were taken as incrementally “dovish” thanks mainly too a lack of enthusiasm for a rate hike, and consistent mentions of China risks and too-low inflation. The Fed pilots didn’t remove a chance of a September rate hike, but they did legitimately reduce them, which isn’t a good thing for markets, as[…]

An Inflation Report and the Commodity Collapse

The best performer among currencies yesterday was the British pound, which hit a six-week high vs. the dollar thanks to a hotter-than-expected inflation report. And, the British inflation report is actually a good report to highlight because it points out how we all need to look at an inflation report going forward in the wake[…]