What Will the Fed Say?

What will the Fed say today? What will make the FOMC statement “dovish,” and what will make it “hawkish”? All the focus for the Wednesday, Apr. 29, FOMC meeting, and in particular—what will the Fed say on the first paragraph of the FOMC statement. That first page is where the FOMC gives its commentary on[…]

A Thin, Narrow Rally

Tech stocks rallied big last week, with the Nasdaq surging nearly 3% mostly on upbeat earnings), while small caps also outperformed. More generally, the 2015 trend of small caps and tech outperforming the S&P 500 continued last week (from a broad allocation standpoint, tech and small caps have been the place to be all year).[…]

A Resources Trade Update

Since the March FOMC meeting, where the Fed was surprisingly “dovish” and effectively capped the dollar rally, we have been cautiously bullish on the resources trade. The basic thesis was that between the Fed capping the dollar, low valuations, potentially bottoming inflation and 24 global central banks easing policy, the risk/reward in a bombed out[…]

Why China is a New Macro Risk

After spending over a year on the macro “back burner,” China reasserted itself as a new macro force—and a new macro risk—over the past two weeks, thanks to its simultaneously surging stock market and apparently sputtering economy. China is perhaps exhibiting the biggest disconnect in the world between the domestic economy and the domestic stock[…]