Global Flash PMI Analysis

Global November Flash Manufacturing PMIs Chinese PMI 50.0 vs. (E) 50.2. German PMI 50.0 vs. (E) 51.5. EMU PMI 51.3 vs. 50.9. US PMI: 54.7 vs. 56.5. Takeaway The biggest disappointment in the data was the German PMI, which very surprisingly plunged to 50.0. This was the biggest negative of all the reports, although the[…]

Time to Buy XLE?

Time to Buy XLE? Fundamentally, the outlook for oil remains broadly the same: Waiting on OPEC. But, as we discussed earlier this week, most major energy companies are not aggressively shutting in aggregate production, as increases from profitable wells are offsetting shut-ins from high-cost wells. From a macro standpoint, pressure is mounting on OPEC, the[…]

FOMC Minutes Analysis

FOMC Minutes The FOMC minutes didn’t contain many surprises, but on balance they did confirm that the FOMC is more committed to normalizing policy than the market thought before the October meeting. Yesterday I focused on the difference between market-based and sentiment-based inflation expectations, and so too did the Fed in its minutes. The takeaway[…]